A groundbreaking study from the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) predicts that artificial intelligence could eliminate up to three million low-skilled positions in the United Kingdom by 2035. The educational research charity's analysis suggests trades, machine operations and administrative roles face the highest risk of automation.
Which Jobs Face the Greatest Threat?
The NFER report identifies specific occupations particularly vulnerable to AI disruption. Roles in trades, machine operations and administrative functions appear most likely to disappear as automation accelerates. This contrasts sharply with recent research from other institutions suggesting AI would primarily affect highly skilled technical professions.
Jude Hillary, one of the report's authors, explained their findings differ because NFER's analysis uses longer-term economic modelling of the UK labour market rather than short-term trends. "There's lots of talk about AI and automation without any real substance about it," Hillary noted, suggesting current layoffs might reflect broader economic uncertainty rather than pure technological displacement.
Highly Skilled Professionals in Demand
While low-skilled positions face elimination, the report forecasts increased demand for highly skilled professionals. AI and technological advances are expected to increase workloads for these roles "at least in the short to medium term," creating opportunities even as other sectors contract.
This creates a potentially troubling skills gap. Hillary expressed particular concern about displaced workers: "The additional jobs that we're getting in the labour market tend to be professional and associate professionals... Displaced workers, the one to three million that we talk about in our report, face significant barriers to get back into the labour market."
Contrasting Research and Real-World Impact
The NFER findings stand in stark contrast to other recent analyses. Research from King's College published in October estimated that "higher-paying firms" suffered job losses of roughly 9.4% between 2021 and 2025, with much of this period following ChatGPT's late 2022 release.
Meanwhile, the UK government's own assessment lists management consultants, psychologists and legal professionals among occupations "most exposed to AI," while considering "sports players," "roofers" and "bricklayers" less replaceable.
Real-world examples already demonstrate this shift. Law firm Clifford Chance recently revealed it was laying off approximately 50 business services staff in London, partly attributing the cuts to AI. Similarly, PwC's leader publicly revised hiring plans for 100,000 people between 2021 and 2026, acknowledging that "the world is different" and artificial intelligence had transformed their staffing requirements.
Despite these immediate impacts, Hillary suggests predictions about AI-driven job losses might be premature, with economic factors like rising national insurance costs and employer risk-aversion playing significant roles in current workforce reductions.
