All eyes are on the UK economy this morning as the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are set for release. The data, covering both September and the entire third quarter of 2025, arrives less than two weeks before Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers a crucial budget statement.
A Cooling Economic Picture
Economists are forecasting a modest expansion for the third quarter. Predictions suggest the economy grew by just 0.2% between July and September. This represents a noticeable slowdown from the 0.3% growth recorded in the previous quarter from April to June.
The picture for September alone is expected to be even more challenging. The economy likely felt the chill of pre-budget uncertainty. A significant factor was the major disruption in the automotive sector, where a severe cyber attack forced carmaker Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) to suspend production for the entire month.
The Impact of the JLR Cyber Attack
The repercussions of the cyber attack were profound. It drove car production at British factories down to its lowest level for the month of September since 1952, a staggering 73-year low. This dramatic slump in a key industry is sure to have negatively impacted the wider measure of economic activity captured by the GDP report.
A poor set of figures will undoubtedly intensify criticism directed at Chancellor Rachel Reeves and her handling of the economy. She is preparing to present her budget statement on 26 November, and weak growth will put immense pressure on her to deliver a convincing plan.
Broader Economic Consequences
Beyond the political fallout, sluggish growth could also influence the Bank of England's monetary policy. Weak economic data may spur the central bank towards cutting interest rates again. A further rate cut in December is already being viewed by markets as a distinct possibility.
The GDP release at 7am GMT will be accompanied by the UK trade report for September. Later today, Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene will be a panellist at a Chatham House event, discussing the threat to central bank independence.
