The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has issued severe weather warnings for parts of eastern and southeastern Australia, with heavy rain and thunderstorms expected over the coming days. A low-pressure system over South Australia, combined with tropical moisture moving down the eastern seaboard, is set to bring widespread rainfall and potential flash flooding.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings
Meteorologist Ilana Cherny stated that severe weather warnings are in place for eastern Tasmania on Wednesday and Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are predicted to hit central western New South Wales (NSW) before moving south toward Victoria on Thursday evening. In addition to heavy rainfall, some areas may experience damaging winds and large hail, particularly in parts of southern Queensland.
Rainfall Totals
In the 24 hours leading up to Tuesday afternoon, thunderstorms brought rainfalls of up to 60mm in NSW, 70mm in Tasmania, 20mm in Victoria, and 40mm in southeastern South Australia. Over the next few days, the eastern seaboard could see accumulated totals of 25-100mm across southern Queensland, with heavier falls around the Darling Downs. NSW western slopes may receive 50-100mm, while parts of the NSW coast could see 100-150mm. Eastern Tasmania is expected to get 50-100mm.
El Niño Development
The BoM also reported signs of El Niño development in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have warmed substantially in recent weeks, with all climate models forecasting El Niño thresholds by winter. The bureau noted uncertainty in the event's strength but indicated it could be at least moderate, possibly strong. However, the strength of El Niño does not necessarily correlate with strong impacts on Australia's climate, as other factors also influence weather patterns.
The low-pressure system is expected to move offshore on Friday, but moisture will continue to wrap around it, maintaining the risk of heavy falls along coastal NSW.
