Large parts of southeast Australia are expected to experience drier and hotter conditions over the next three months as a potential El Niño weather phenomenon develops in the Pacific Ocean. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has forecast lower than usual rainfall for much of Queensland and New South Wales in May, June, and July 2026, with almost the entire country likely to see hotter than average maximum temperatures.
El Niño's Impact on Australia's Climate
The World Meteorological Organization recently noted an increasing chance of El Niño forming in the Pacific, a phenomenon historically linked to hotter and drier conditions for Australia's east coast. El Niño events also tend to elevate global temperatures, with some climate experts suggesting a strong event could contribute to record heat in 2027.
El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-usual ocean waters in the tropical Pacific and a weakening or reversal of easterly trade winds, which can keep cloud and rain away from Australia's east. While the BoM acknowledges disagreement among weather models, most indicate sea surface temperatures consistent with El Niño could be in place by July.
Forecast Details for May to July
Caitlin Minney, a climatologist at the BoM, stated that a developing El Niño is likely a key factor behind the dry forecast. "May to July looks like rainfall will likely be below average for much of eastern Australia," she said. The drier conditions are expected to be concentrated in NSW and Queensland, but parts of northern and western Victoria, southern South Australia, and southwestern Western Australia may also experience dryness.
The bureau is also monitoring the Indian Ocean, where some models suggest cooling ocean temperatures off Australia's northwest—another phenomenon that can reduce rainfall over the continent.
Scientific Insights on El Niño
Dr. Peter van Rensch, a climate scientist at Monash University, led a study on how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects Australian rainfall. He noted that El Niño's influence on rainfall is historically strongest in June, July, October, and November. "The pattern of the rainfall in the bureau's forecast does look similar to what we would expect from the historical relationship with El Niño," he said. While many models suggest a strong El Niño, van Rensch cautioned that much can change in the Pacific.
Despite some commentary about a potential "super El Niño," the bureau warned that forecasts at this time of year are less reliable. The strength of an El Niño does not necessarily correlate with the severity of its impacts on Australian rainfall. Van Rensch added that the location of the warmest Pacific waters matters: El Niños concentrated in the central Pacific tend to have stronger effects on Australia than those farther east.
Temperature Outlook and Climate Change
The BoM's long-range forecast also indicates an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures from May to July across the bottom two-thirds of Australia. "The climate change signal is coming through very strongly in our temperature forecasts," said Minney. Global heating, driven by fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, has warmed Australia by about 1.5°C since 1910.
As the nation prepares for a potentially harsh winter, authorities urge residents in affected areas to stay informed and take precautions against heat and drought conditions.
