With the highly anticipated draw for the 2026 FIFA World Cup set to take place this Friday, football fans and analysts are speculating about the potential pitfalls awaiting their nations. The expanded 48-team format introduces new dynamics, making the draw more complex and the prospect of a 'group of death' ever more intriguing. We examine the worst-case scenarios for the home nations, the hosts, and other key competitors based on the official seeding pots.
Navigating the Perilous Pots: England and Scotland's Tough Paths
For Gareth Southgate's England, positioned in Pot 1, the rankings suggest a nightmare trio would be Croatia (Pot 2), Panama (Pot 3), and Jordan (Pot 4). Drawing Croatia, a recent finalist and semi-finalist, would block England from facing other dangerous European sides like Erling Haaland's Norway or a resurgent Italy from later pots. However, a more daunting sporting challenge could be a group containing Morocco, Norway, and Jordan. The Atlas Lions, semi-finalists in 2022, would eliminate the threat of Mohamed Salah's Egypt from Pot 3.
Scotland, placed in Pot 3, face a different set of hazards. Their worst draw on paper would pit them against the world's top-ranked side, Spain, from Pot 1, and the formidable Morocco from Pot 2. An equally daunting combination would be Argentina and Croatia. As hosts, the USA, Canada, and Mexico are all in Pot 1, and Scotland would likely prefer to face one of these over the traditional global powerhouses.
Hosts and Hopefuls: USA and Australia's Draw Dilemmas
The United States, as a host nation in Pot 1, avoid the world's top nine ranked teams. Their trickiest scenario may not be Croatia from Pot 2, but rather landing Morocco, Colombia, or Uruguay followed by Norway from Pot 3. They are fortunately spared a group-stage meeting with Panama, who have a strong recent record against them. The US will also be keen to avoid the European playoff winners from Pot 4.
For Australia in Pot 2, a draw pairing Argentina (Pot 1) with Norway (Pot 3) would be particularly unwelcome, though it would rule out a European team from Pot 4. The Socceroos must also be wary of Pot 4 opponents like Ghana, Cape Verde, or a potentially qualified DR Congo, all capable of causing an upset.
The Ultimate Group of Death and Geopolitical Subplots
Theoretical possibilities for a 'group of death' are stark. One could comprise Argentina (2nd), Morocco (11th), Italy (12th if they qualify), and Norway (29th). However, the new format, where the best eight third-place teams advance, dilutes some of the traditional jeopardy.
Beyond sport, geopolitics may influence the narrative. A match between the USA and Iran would create a huge political spectacle, echoing their charged 1998 encounter. Relations between Spain and Morocco, or a potential meeting between the Netherlands and the Dutch-affiliated Curaçao, also add intriguing layers to the draw.
The final composition of Pots 3 and 4 remains partially unresolved, pending March's playoffs. The performance of teams like Italy, Wales, and Ukraine will finalise the landscape before the footballing world's attention turns to North America in 2026.
