With the end of the season approaching, it is time again to navigate the ever more complex rules determining whether your club may qualify for Europe. There will definitely be eight English teams playing continental football next season, and possibly more. However, if you own a multi-club network, you are too late to place your shareholding in a blind trust. The rules are not made by this writer, only interpreted.
How Many European Places Are Available for English Clubs?
Currently, eight places are up for grabs. This breaks down as follows: four Champions League places awarded by league position, plus a fifth guaranteed due to English success in Europe this season (known as a European performance spot or EPS); two spaces in the Europa League, one by league position and the other (in principle) to the FA Cup winners; and a final space in Conference League qualifying, awarded (in principle) to the Carabao Cup winners.
Current Standings and Qualification
If the Premier League ended today, Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Aston Villa, and Liverpool would qualify for the Champions League by league position. Sixth place, currently Brighton, would earn a Europa League spot, and seventh, currently Bournemouth, would enter the Conference League. The second Europa League spot tied to the FA Cup will be decided later. If Manchester City win the FA Cup, that place passes down the league, meaning sixth and seventh both qualify for the Europa League, and eighth goes to the Conference League. Currently, Chelsea occupies eighth place and would relish the chance to reclaim the trophy they won last season.
Current Premier League Table (Top 8)
- 1. Manchester City – 33 matches, +37 GD, 70 pts
- 2. Arsenal – 33, +37, 70
- 3. Manchester United – 33, +13, 58
- 4. Aston Villa – 33, +6, 58
- 5. Liverpool – 33, +11, 55
- 6. Brighton – 34, +9, 50
- 7. AFC Bournemouth – 34, 0, 49
- 8. Chelsea – 34, +8, 48
Could There Be More Than Eight Places?
Yes, but it depends heavily on Aston Villa. UEFA grants the Europa League winners a Champions League place, which could go to Villa or Nottingham Forest. Similarly, if Crystal Palace win the Conference League, they earn a Europa League spot. Thus, the total could reach 10. However, there are nuances. If Aston Villa win the Europa League but finish in the top four, no extra Champions League place is awarded per UEFA rules. But due to the EPS slot system, if Villa win and finish fifth or lower, a sixth Champions League spot becomes available and passes down the league table. Simultaneously, a sixth Champions League spot means UEFA deducts the Europa League spot otherwise awarded by league position. No such concerns arise if Forest wins, given their league position, resulting in a simple +1 to the total.
Weirdest Possible Outcome
The middle of the Premier League is congested, with five points separating sixth from 12th place. This creates many permutations where a relatively unheralded side like Fulham or Sunderland could beat a more established team—like Chelsea—to a European spot. One very odd possibility involves Brentford reaching the Champions League, but only by losing on the final day. Suppose Villa win the Europa League the midweek before. And Brentford wins the battle of the Bs (against Brighton and Bournemouth) and cannot finish lower than sixth. They would then need Villa to finish fifth so the extra Champions League place drops to them. The good news for Brentford is that Villa plays Manchester City on the final day while Brentford visits Liverpool, currently fifth. Three points for Liverpool could give Brentford a shot at European glory, while an away win could end it. This raises the unseemly prospect of fans praying for a dodgy lasagna, though surely it will not come to that.
