The Premier League finally has a genuine relegation battle after recent seasons with a defined bottom three. A handful of nervous clubs are now aiming to beat the drop to the Championship, making for a thrilling end to the season.
It was a good weekend for Nottingham Forest, although perhaps not as good as it looked like it might be on Friday night. That evening, when they handed Sunderland a record defeat at the Stadium of Light with a 5-0 win, Forest must have expected to pull away from at least one of their relegation rivals. However, they ended the weekend where they began, five points clear of third-bottom Tottenham and three clear of West Ham, with four games remaining after both London strugglers also won.
It was a classic Saturday afternoon in the relegation battle, a rarity these days with games spread out over a weekend. Tottenham’s match at Wolves and West Ham against Everton kicked off simultaneously. Tomáš Souček’s goal for the Hammers six minutes after half-time prompted celebration at the London Stadium and anxiety among Spurs fans at Molineux. João Palhinha put Tottenham ahead with eight minutes remaining, and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall equalized for Everton with two minutes to go. Had it stayed that way, Tottenham would have escaped the relegation zone on goal difference. But Callum Wilson scored for West Ham two minutes into injury time, lifting them above Spurs and within three points of Forest.
In that sense, nothing changed at the bottom, except that Leeds, unbeaten in six league games, are only a point above Forest after a run that might have guaranteed safety. Newcastle, who lost their fourth consecutive league game at Arsenal, are only two points above that. Even Crystal Palace and Sunderland, one and four points further clear respectively, are not mathematically safe. Realistically, it is unlikely that Spurs, after 116 days without a league victory before Saturday, will suddenly win three of their last four games to bring Palace into play. But it seems plausible that 40 points, the traditional threshold for presumed safety, may not be enough this season.
Only three sides in Premier League history have been relegated with at least 40 points: Sunderland in 1996-97 and Bolton in 1997-98 (both 40), and West Ham with 42 in 2002-03. This contrasts sharply with the past two seasons, when the team in 18th place picked up 26 and then 25 points. Since 2015-16, when Newcastle went down with 37 points, no side with more than 34 has been relegated. So what has changed?
This season could be an exception. It is possible Tottenham lose their remaining four games and go down with 34 points. Although they have shown more fight under Roberto De Zerbi, confidence remains low, and injuries have been compounded by Xavi Simons suffering a ruptured ACL against Wolves.
The biggest change has been the performance of promoted sides. Last season they earned 59 points between them, the season before 66. This season, they have already amassed 106. While Burnley struggled, Leeds and Sunderland spent significantly and wisely on players. It is unlikely that Coventry and whichever two of Ipswich, Millwall, Middlesbrough, Southampton, Wrexham, Hull, and Derby come up will match that expenditure, though Ipswich and Southampton have recent Premier League experience, and Wrexham have Hollywood backing.
More generally, this has been the best season for the Premier League’s middle classes since 2015-16, when Leicester won the league, Southampton finished sixth, and West Ham seventh. The following summer saw a wave of spending from traditional giants, sweeping away the brief equality. The Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSRs) have a bad reputation, partly because aspirant clubs with wealthy owners feel they prevent investment needed to reach the next tier. But this season shows the system working, with incremental improvement and sensible management making even modest sides competitive. However, PSRs will be replaced next season by the Squad Cost Ratio, which appears to allow deep-pocketed clubs to exercise their advantage more thoroughly.
For now, the Premier League has not only a proper title race but also a true battle against relegation. This is how it should be, with every matchday bringing multiple dramatic twists. Each of the four sides likeliest to occupy the third relegation slot has unexpectedly found late-season form, making one or two other teams uneasy.
