Arsenal and Manchester City meet in the Community Shield on Sunday, with the first piece of silverware of the season up for grabs. While some view the traditional curtain-raiser as little more than a glorified friendly, both teams will be keen to start the new campaign with positivity. However, victory in the annual game does not historically translate to Premier League success.
Of the past 15 teams to have won the Community Shield, only one has gone on to win the league title at the end of that season. That team was Manchester City, who completed the Community Shield and Premier League double in the 2018/19 season.
Historical Record Shows Losers Often Fare Better
In the Premier League era as a whole, only eight of the 34 winners of the Shield have gone on to win the trophy, with five of these occurring in a six-year period from 2005 until 2010. As a matter of fact, the Community Shield runners-up have been more successful in the league than the winners themselves.
Since 1992, the losers have won ten league titles compared to the eight picked up by the winners. Three of these instances were Manchester City, who were beaten three seasons in a row between 2021 and 2023. And of the 34 Premier League winners, 15 weren’t even involved in the game itself.
Top-Two Finishes Rare for Shield Participants
What’s more, the winners and runners-up have only finished as the top two teams in the Premier League on ten occasions. Last year’s winners, Crystal Palace, ended up finishing 15th in the league – although it was unrealistic to expect Oliver Glasner’s side to compete for the title. The beaten team, Liverpool, could only manage a disappointing fifth place under Arne Slot.
Here is how Community Shield winners have fared in the league over the past 15 seasons: 2011/12 Man Utd – 2nd; 2012/13 Man City – 2nd; 2013/14 Man Utd – 7th; 2014/15 Arsenal – 3rd; 2015/16 Arsenal – 2nd; 2016/17 Man Utd – 6th; 2017/18 Arsenal – 6th; 2018/19 Man City – 1st; 2019/20 Man City – 2nd; 2020/21 Arsenal – 8th; 2021/22 Leicester – 8th; 2022/23 Liverpool – 5th; 2023/24 Arsenal – 2nd; 2024/25 Man City – 3rd; 2025/26 Crystal Palace – 15th.
Who Actually Performs Better in the Community Shield?
Of the 34 Community Shield winners in the Premier League era, 18 won the league title in the previous season, while 13 were the FA Cup holders. But while the Premier League champions have a better success rate in the one-off game, the FA Cup winners have won eight of the past 12 Community Shields – including Palace last year.
The other three Community Shield winners since 1992 were neither the Premier League nor FA Cup winners. Arsenal (1999 and 2023) and Manchester United (2010) only played in the game as Premier League runners-up and ended up beating the Double winners to claim the trophy.
As Arsenal and Manchester City prepare to contest the Shield, history suggests that the winner may face an uphill battle in the league, while the loser could emerge as the true contender for the title.
