Arsenal and Manchester City meet in the Community Shield on Sunday, with the first piece of silverware of the season set to be handed out. While the traditional curtain-raiser is viewed by some as little more than a glorified friendly, both teams will nevertheless be keen to head into the new campaign with a dose of positivity.
But perhaps surprisingly, victory in the annual game does not historically translate to success in the Premier League season ahead. Of the past 15 teams to have won the Community Shield, only one side has gone on to win the league title at the end of that season.
Historical Trend: Winners Often Falter
That team is Manchester City, who completed the Community Shield and Premier League double in the 2018/19 season. And in the Premier League era as a whole, only eight of the 34 winners of the Shield have gone on to win the trophy, with five of these happening in a six-year period from 2005 until 2010.
As a matter of fact, the Community Shield runners-up have actually been more successful in the league than the winners themselves. Since 1992, the losers have won ten league titles compared to the eight picked up by the winners. Three of these instances were Manchester City, who were beaten three seasons in a row between 2021 and 2023.
Runners-Up and Non-Participants Have Fared Better
And of the 34 Premier League winners, 15 weren’t even involved in the game itself. What’s more, the winners and runners-up have only finished as the top two teams in the Premier League on ten occasions.
Last year’s winners, Crystal Palace, ended up finishing 15th in the league – although it was unrealistic to expect Oliver Glasner’s side to compete for the title. The beaten team, Liverpool, could only manage a disappointing fifth place under Arne Slot.
Community Shield Winners' League Positions
The following list shows the league position of Community Shield winners in the subsequent Premier League season:
- 2011/12: Man Utd – 2nd
- 2012/13: Man City – 2nd
- 2013/14: Man Utd – 7th
- 2014/15: Arsenal – 3rd
- 2015/16: Arsenal – 2nd
- 2016/17: Man Utd – 6th
- 2017/18: Arsenal – 6th
- 2018/19: Man City – 1st
- 2019/20: Man City – 2nd
- 2020/21: Arsenal – 8th
- 2021/22: Leicester – 8th
- 2022/23: Liverpool – 5th
- 2023/24: Arsenal – 2nd
- 2024/25: Man City – 3rd
- 2025/26: Crystal Palace – 15th
Who Actually Performs Better in the Community Shield?
Of the 34 Community Shield winners in the Premier League era, 18 won the league title in the previous season, while 13 were the FA Cup holders. But while the Premier League champions have a better success rate in the one-off game, the FA Cup winners have won eight of the past 12 Community Shields – including Palace last year.
The other three Community Shield winners since 1992 were neither the Premier League nor FA Cup winners. Arsenal (1999 and 2023) and Manchester United (2010) only played in the game as Premier League runners-up and ended up beating the Double winners to claim the trophy.
