The Premier League title race is Arsenal's to lose, but pressure does strange things to teams. The Gunners seemingly have the easier end-of-season schedule, but Manchester City are clinging to hope that anything can happen.
Arsenal lead Manchester City by two points, meaning two wins in their final two games would seal the title. Those games are tonight against Burnley, who have been relegated, and on Sunday against Crystal Palace, who will be preparing for the Europa Conference League final three days later. It is hard to imagine a better pair of fixtures for Mikel Arteta's side at this stage of the season.
City's games appear harder. On Tuesday they play away at Bournemouth, who are still fighting for Champions League qualification. City finish at home against Aston Villa, who will just have returned from Istanbul and a Europa League final.
All sorts of specious psychological theories are applied to these end-of-season games. Do teams with little or nothing left to play for put in the same effort? Or do they perhaps play with a greater freedom? Palace manager Oliver Glasner, whose side lost 3-0 to City last week, was explicit in saying his first duty is to do what is right for his club; putting on a good title race is not his responsibility.
Villa's Unai Emery, in similar vein, rested players earlier this month against Tottenham before his team's second leg of the Europa League semi-final; Spurs won that game and clambered above West Ham in the race against relegation as a consequence. That is the right, the privilege even, of clubs who have achieved their principal goals. It is a quirk of the calendar and inevitable in any league system.
But if Glasner does rest players before Palace's game in Leipzig against Rayo Vallecano, perhaps the fresher reserves, desperate to claim a place in the side for the final, will overperform. Perhaps Villa, elevated by European glory or inspired by the fury of defeat, will reach new heights.
Could Burnley upset Arsenal? It is unlikely. They have not won in 11 games and are without a league win at home since October, but they played well enough last weekend in drawing with Villa. With relegation confirmed, there could be a sense of release. That is all City now can hope for, and their goal-difference is one better than Arsenal's, meaning that an Arsenal draw in one of their two remaining games would probably be enough to give City the title if they win both their fixtures.
There is a history of teams with nothing to play for finding motivation in specific games. In 1994-95, Blackburn won the league because Manchester United could only draw at West Ham. In 1971-72, Derby won the league after Leeds lost at Wolves and Liverpool drew at Arsenal.
But perhaps the biggest single factor this season is Arsenal's mentality, and the pressure that any side challenging for the title must feel, especially after a 22-year wait. Arsenal have seemed more robust in recent weeks, but the real test might come tonight if it is still 0-0 after an hour against Burnley. That is the hope to which City must cling, but the reality is that this title now is Arsenal's to lose. The title race can do strange things to teams.
