The build-up to this Saturday's prestigious Clarence House Chase at Ascot has been dominated by one talking point: the price of the favourite. Thistle Ask, trained by Dan Skelton, currently heads the market at around 5-1, but a growing chorus of racing experts and punters are questioning whether the gelding represents genuine value at such short odds.
Analysing the Favourite's Credentials
The case for Thistle Ask is built on a compelling performance last time out. The eight-year-old produced a stunning display to win the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown in early December, beating the highly-regarded Colonel Mustard by an impressive seven lengths. That form is undoubtedly strong, and it propelled him to the top of the ante-post lists for this weekend's feature.
However, the leap from a novices' chase to the cut-and-thrust of an open Grade 1 against seasoned, top-level two-mile chasers is a significant one. The Clarence House Chase, run over 1 mile 7 furlongs and 127 yards, has a storied history of attracting the very best, including legends like Altior and Un De Sceaux. Critics argue that Thistle Ask, for all his Sandown brilliance, remains unproven at this elevated level and against this calibre of opposition.
A Crowded and Competitive Field
The doubts about the favourite's price are compounded by the quality of the expected field. Several established stars are poised to line up, each with a compelling claim. Edwardstone, the 2022 Arkle winner, is a formidable contender if he recaptures his best form. The enigmatic but brilliant Jonbon, from the powerful Nicky Henderson yard, is another major threat, possessing the raw talent to win any race he contests.
Furthermore, the potential presence of last year's winner, Editeur Du Gite, adds another layer of intrigue. The Gary Moore-trained ten-year-old loves Ascot and proved his grit in this very race twelve months ago. With such a deep and talented roster of rivals, the task facing Thistle Ask appears even more daunting than his odds might suggest.
Market Movements and Betting Verdict
The betting market itself tells a story. While Thistle Ask remains the favourite, sustained support for other runners indicates where the shrewd money might be going. The relative stability of his price, in the face of such competition, has raised eyebrows among seasoned observers. Many believe the value lies elsewhere in the field, with more experienced chasers offering a more attractive risk-reward proposition.
The race is scheduled for Saturday, 18th January, at Ascot Racecourse. The going and final declarations will play a crucial role, but the central narrative is already clear. Dan Skelton's charge is a exciting, upwardly-mobile horse, but the question hanging over the Clarence House Chase is whether his journey to the top has come too soon for him to justify short-priced favouritism in one of the season's most competitive two-mile chases.
For punters, the conundrum is a classic one: back the potential of the new kid on the block, or side with proven Grade 1 performers at more enticing odds. As the racing world converges on Ascot, all eyes will be on Thistle Ask to see if he can silence the doubters and confirm his status as a genuine top-tier chaser.
