Trump's gamble on Iran war threatens Republican midterm prospects
Donald Trump has resumed military strikes against Iran less than a month after hailing a ceasefire, a move that experts warn could prolong the conflict and damage Republican chances in the upcoming midterm elections. The decision to restart hostilities comes despite the unpopularity of the war among voters, particularly due to its inflationary impact on fuel and living costs.
“There’s basically no timeline in which this makes any sense for preserving [Republicans’] midterm performance,” said Curt Mills, executive editor of the American Conservative. “I think it’s a total loser. It’s evidence that Trump doesn’t really care about the midterms. He’s like Icarus with the sun with this stuff – it seems to be a personal vendetta with the Iranians.”
Ceasefire collapse and renewed strikes
On 17 June, Trump signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in the Palace of Versailles, agreeing to a 60-day ceasefire in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and negotiating on its nuclear program. However, within days, Iran fired on commercial vessels from Gulf kingdoms using a shipping lane near Oman, leading Trump to declare the MoU dead and order a resumption of strikes. Iran retaliated with drone and missile attacks on US allies in the Gulf.
The MoU had been criticized by neoconservative Republicans as a capitulation. Analysts blame poor US negotiating for ambiguities, but Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies argued, “I don’t think there was a misunderstanding. I think this is exactly what Trump intended.” Nasr cited Vice-President JD Vance’s comments that the MoU was a breather to replenish strategic oil reserves and weaken Iran’s hand.
Risk of escalation and forever war
Experts warn that the escalation could lead to a land invasion of Iran, creating a long-term “forever war” that Trump previously condemned. Nate Swanson, a former state department and White House adviser on Iran, said, “My initial assessment was that this would just be another blip, but the escalation has already exceeded what I thought possible. I see this as an effort to re-establish leverage, but it is highly risky with potentially devastating consequences – and likely to be a failure.”
The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s energy exports passed before the war, remains Tehran’s biggest bargaining chip. Iran closed the strait in response to US and Israeli attacks, causing global oil prices to soar. The MoU aimed to reopen it in exchange for sanctions relief, but disputes over shipping lanes derailed the agreement.
Lack of Iran expertise in Trump administration
The absence of Iran specialists in Trump’s administration heightens the risk of miscalculation. Swanson, who said he was forced out of the state department after a critical tweet from Laura Loomer, blamed Secretary of State Marco Rubio for removing key personnel. “I’m struck by some of the leaks that have come out about decision-making in this war, where Rubio is reportedly skeptical about regime change aims but says nothing,” Swanson said.
Instead, Trump has relied on his trusted negotiating team: Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Vance. Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute said, “That is how he fundamentally misunderstood his adversary. Expertise would have come handy for the president, to actually listen to folks who’ve watched this Iranian system, and would have told him ‘They’re not businessmen from New York. They’re made of a different type of DNA.’”
Potential for prolonged conflict
Iran’s willingness to suffer and gamble on the Strait of Hormuz could drive Trump to further escalation, including a ground invasion. Regime change, initially sought with the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, seems off the table for now. The recent week-long funeral for Khamenei is seen as an effort to re-establish unity.
Vatanka warned of a five- to ten-year conflict: “You can imagine the United States bombarding Iran repeatedly over many weeks and months. But I don’t know how Trump’s going to defeat the regime militarily, unless he wants to occupy the place.” An invasion of Kharg Island, Iran’s crude oil export hub, is one option, but retired General Joseph Votel stressed the need for diplomacy with NATO allies, saying, “It’s important that we focus on reducing the points of leverage that Iran has. We’re seeing a sustained tit for tat. A lot of strategic patience is required – and there is a lot of risk involved.”
