Tory Optimism Meets Electoral Reality: Badenoch's 'Comeback' Claim Faces May Test
Kemi Badenoch stood before cheering supporters at the Conservative local election launch last week and made a bold declaration: "The Conservative party is coming back." This statement has ignited a complex mix of emotions within Tory ranks, with some MPs expressing cautious optimism while others confront the stark reality of impending electoral disaster.
A Divided Party Mood
Relative to the gloomy atmosphere that has plagued Conservatives in recent years, many MPs now describe themselves as "quietly chirpy." One backbencher explained, "I don't want to say we're chipper, as that might sound complacent, but we're quietly chirpy. Yes, we're going to do badly, but that's expected. And more importantly, Labour will do worse."
This guarded optimism stems from several factors: Reform UK's recent dip in polls, Badenoch's improved personal ratings, her strong performances against Keir Starmer at Prime Minister's Questions, and her handling of potentially destabilizing departures of Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman to Nigel Farage's party.
The Stark Polling Reality
Yet this optimism appears disconnected from polling data that shows the Conservatives at just 17% support according to YouGov, a near-extinction level that has remained stagnant for months. This contrasts sharply with the 40%+ ratings the party enjoyed during Boris Johnson's vaccine bounce in May 2021, when Scotland and Wales last elected their parliaments.
"I'd describe the mood as pretty grim," countered one skeptical MP. "We're staying dead level at 17% in the polls and we're going to lose a load of councils. What is there to be happy about?"
The Reform UK Challenge
A deeper concern haunting the party is the rise of Reform UK as a direct replacement on the right of British politics. Some fear the Conservatives resemble a cartoon character who has run off a cliff but hasn't yet looked down. "There is mass denial going on in the party," said a senior regional organizer with council elections in their area.
"If you're knocking on doors as much as I do, the view from MPs can seem delusional. No one has ever told me: 'Kemi was good on PMQs, wasn't she?' It's only MPs and nerds like me who watch it. We're not making up ground. The brand has not been repaired."
Leadership Security Amid Crisis
Despite the dire polling, party consensus suggests Badenoch remains completely safe in her position. Even her fiercest critics acknowledge there is little chance she will face a leadership challenge, particularly since Jenrick—the only MP believed to be organizing such a bid—has departed for Reform UK.
"What pressure there is on Kemi is kind of under the radar for now," an MP noted. "She most likely has another conference speech and maybe another set of local elections before there could be any kind of challenge."
A New Political Landscape
Political analysts question whether the party has adjusted to Britain's new political reality, where the Conservative-Labour duopoly has been shattered and voter loyalties remain in permanent flux. Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, observed, "Their poll position suggests to me that they are in an awful lot of trouble."
"Simply pointing to a Labour government that's doing really badly, and thinking, well, we're not as bad as them—it's not enough. They don't seem to have realised that they are living in a completely different world, one where unpopularity for the government does not necessarily translate into popularity for the official opposition."
Flickers of Hope
Amid the gloom, some Conservatives point to potential tactical voting that could boost their results. One MP reported hearing on doorsteps: "I'm normally a Lib Dem, but it's you versus Reform here, and I want to keep Reform out at all costs, so I'll vote for you."
Others suggest the party must adjust expectations in what has become a five-party system. "We're not going to be on 45%," conceded one MP. "But the truth is that we really don't know what's going to happen."
The Personal Factor
A more personal reason for improved morale cited by several MPs is the departure of divisive figures Jenrick and Braverman. "It's hard to overstate how much people breathed a sigh of relief when Robert and Suella left," a shadow minister revealed. "Robert was particularly toxic, and that spread. Now he's gone, even his friends seem to be trying extra hard to be loyal."
Facing the Abyss
Yet these remain crumbs of comfort against the backdrop of potential electoral catastrophe. One party official described the current state as "denial" in the stages of grief, predicting that "after May there will be the realisation we are doing something very wrong."
The official added ominously: "If we get smashed in May, I would rather roll the dice and try again. This isn't about bad results. It's existential." As May approaches, the Conservative party stands at a crossroads between Badenoch's proclaimed comeback and what many fear could be their political abyss.
