The government has unveiled sweeping justice reforms that could see the right to a trial by jury dramatically curtailed for thousands of defendants in England and Wales. Under the new plans, only individuals facing a likely custodial sentence of more than three years would retain the automatic right to have their case decided by a jury of their peers.
The Scale of the Proposed Change
An exclusive analysis by Sky News has quantified the potential impact of this policy shift. The data reveals that as many as three in every four crown court trials could be transferred from juries to judges or magistrates if the reforms become law.
This conclusion is based on sentencing outcomes from the latest year to June 2025. The analysis found that 74% of convictions secured in crown courts resulted in either a non-custodial sentence or a jail term not exceeding three years. This vast majority of cases would therefore fall under the new threshold and be heard in the proposed "swift courts" by a judge sitting alone.
Justice Secretary David Lammy has outlined exceptions for the most serious offences, which will continue to be tried before a jury. These exceptions include rape, murder, manslaughter, grievous bodily harm, robbery, and arson with intent to kill.
Driving the Reforms: The Court Backlog Crisis
The government argues these "bold" reforms are essential to tackle a deepening crisis in the court system. The primary driver is the immense backlog of cases. In June, the backlog in crown courts approached 80,000 cases, leading to unacceptable delays for victims and defendants alike.
Some trials are currently facing waits of three to four years before they are heard. This protracted process has severe consequences; for instance, one in ten adult rape cases collapsed in the latest year because the victim withdrew, a situation often exacerbated by the trauma of long waits.
The creation of "swift courts" for less serious offences is intended to streamline the process, reduce overall trial times, and help clear the extensive backlog that is crippling the justice system.
What the Sentencing Data Reveals
The crown courts, which prosecute serious criminal offences, currently operate with a jury in almost all cases. In the year to June, they received roughly one in ten of the 1.4 million criminal cases in England and Wales.
Of the approximately 78,000 cases that went to trial in crown courts, about 56,000 resulted in a conviction. The Sky News analysis, which excluded the "most serious" offences listed by the justice secretary, examined the sentences for these convictions.
The likelihood of a sentence exceeding three years varies drastically by crime type:
- Public order offences were least likely to attract a longer custodial sentence, with only 3% of convictions resulting in more than three years.
- Robbery offences were at the other end of the spectrum, with 41% of convictions carrying a sentence longer than three years.
- Strikingly, there were 291 different offences where none of the 10,763 people convicted received a custodial sentence longer than three years. These accounted for one in five crown court convictions.
Full operational details, including how authorities will determine which cases are "likely" to fall under the three-year threshold, are still to be finalised. The government's move marks a significant potential shift in the British legal tradition of trial by jury for serious crimes, aiming to balance tradition with the urgent practical need for a more efficient system.
