All eyes are on Downing Street as Keir Starmer fights to maintain his grip on power amid a deepening leadership crisis. The Labour Party is split, and the prime minister may not last the week. Once again, the UK is shrouded in political uncertainty, with a deeply unpopular premier clinging to office. It has become a familiar cycle: the wait to see which perishable good will outlast our next doomed leader.
Starmer's Fragile Hold on Power
Keir Starmer insists he is not leaving, positioning himself as a serious leader for a serious time. He received a temporary boost when Wes Streeting's challenge failed to materialise on Tuesday. However, his authority among Labour MPs remains weak. Each new resignation attempts to undermine his position. For now, Starmer remains in charge by default, but the situation is volatile.
Speaking to the Guardian's policy editor, Kiran Stacey, we delve into the latest goings-on behind the scenes in Westminster and the obstacles facing the runners and riders vying to be the next temporary occupant of 10 Downing Street.
The Calm Before the Storm
To the naked eye, Tuesday was a quiet day in Westminster. Union jacks were hung from buildings in preparation for today's state opening of parliament, where King Charles will set out the government's priorities. Normally bustling corridors were quiet, and the public was largely cordoned off. But the calm scene belied the political hurricane blowing through government. Keir Starmer is fighting for his political life as calls for him to step down grow louder.
Despite the noisy opposition, little else is certain. It remains unclear exactly how many MPs want Starmer to go. More than 100 signed a letter yesterday opposing a leadership contest, which appears to exceed the number calling for him to quit.
How a Leadership Contest Would Work
The Conservative party has grown used to dispatching leaders, with rules allowing MPs to start a leadership race without an alternative garnering support. Not so in Labour. Even if a rival manages to force a contest by winning the public support of 81 Labour MPs, each would face major hurdles. The prime minister has indicated he would stand against any opponent—Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, Miliband, or anyone else—and each path to power is shrouded with risk.
The 'King in the North': Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is the most popular candidate among Labour MPs and the country. His supporters argue only he could unite different wings of the party and take on the charisma of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. However, Burnham is not an MP, and any return to Westminster would be an uphill battle. His team is scouring the Greater Manchester and Liverpool areas for an MP willing to stand down, allowing him to run in a byelection. A promised place in the House of Lords is a likely reward, but a willing volunteer has been hard to find. On Tuesday, Marie Rimmer, MP for St Helens South and Whiston, said she would not stand down while backing Starmer. Even if an MP does step aside, there is no guarantee Burnham would be permitted to stand as a Labour candidate. "Even if Burnham managed to find someone in the next week or so, we're still talking about two months before he could even be in contention," says Kiran. "The game for Andy Burnham supporters is to drag this out as long as they can." There is also the possibility a constituency would reject him, as Reform and the Green party surged in the north-west in last week's local elections.
The Man in a Hurry: Wes Streeting
Wes Streeting's priority is speed. The health secretary is a skilled communicator but not popular with Labour party members who will pick the next prime minister. On Tuesday, some of Streeting's supporters with ministerial positions resigned, calling for Starmer's exit. Downing Street insiders said the health secretary did not yet have the required support from 81 MPs to launch a formal bid, but Streeting and Starmer are set for talks today. If Streeting's challenge materialises, it will likely come soon. The Ilford North MP faces a narrow road to power, with a wafer-thin majority, lack of popular support from colleagues and members, and his relationship with Peter Mandelson. However, many leftwing members have left to join the Greens, which could work in his favour. "Those who've stuck around are highly likely to be left wing and very socially liberal," explains Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. "But party members also want to win elections. If Streeting can show them he's the guy to do that, he still has a chance."
The Best of the Rest
The rest of the pack have similarly bumpy potential routes to victory. Former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner has long been rumoured to want to stand, but with a tax investigation by HMRC still ongoing, reports indicate she has decided against any move, instead supporting Burnham. If she does not go for it, it would likely mean the leader remains a man. But that could open the door to others. "If a leadership election is called, it all becomes very uncertain," says Kiran. "Ed Miliband might want to. He remains popular with party members. Or junior defence minister Al Carns might, too. There are other people who we've not really talked about who might find themselves deciding to make a bid."
When MPs return to Westminster today, they will do so once again in political chaos, in a country that has grown tired of drama. But predicting what will happen next is a fool's game. "The one thing that everyone knows at the moment is that nobody is quite in control of events," says Kiran, "including the prime minister."
