Prime Minister Keir Starmer is mounting a robust defence of Chancellor Rachel Reeves's first budget today, against a backdrop of plummeting public approval and a fierce political row over whether the Treasury misled voters about the state of the nation's finances.
A Budget's Mixed Reception and Mounting Pressure
The budget, delivered last week, received a warm initial response from two crucial audiences: Labour MPs and the bond markets. However, its reception with the wider public has been starkly different. Polls indicate the public largely views the measures as unfair, causing Reeves's already low approval ratings with voters to sink further.
This negative public sentiment was compounded over the weekend by a significant controversy. A major row erupted over allegations that Reeves misled the public about the size of the so-called "black hole" in the public finances before the budget. This has led to Conservative demands for her to be sacked for lying—a damaging narrative for a government attempting to sell its economic plan.
Starmer's Defence: Growth and Welfare Reform
In a speech in London and a pre-released article for the Guardian, Starmer is seeking to recalibrate the budget's message. He is directly addressing two of the main criticisms levelled at the Chancellor's statement.
First, to counter claims the budget lacked a growth plan, Starmer will stress his commitment to deregulation as a key pro-growth initiative. Second, responding to criticism over increased welfare spending without accompanying reform, the Prime Minister will insist his government is firmly committed to overhauling the benefits system.
In a powerful extract from his speech, Starmer stated: "We have to confront the reality that our welfare state is trapping people, not just in poverty, but out of work. Young people especially. And that is a poverty of ambition... We must also reform the welfare state itself." He emphasised the need to prevent young people from becoming trapped in long-term dependency, framing it as both a moral imperative and an economic necessity.
The 'Black Hole' Controversy and Internal Disquiet
Despite Starmer's efforts, the media focus remains fixed on the allegations of misleading pre-budget messaging. A report in The Times suggests even some within the cabinet are privately critical of the strategy.
One cabinet minister was quoted as saying: "Why did Keir and Rachel allow the country to believe for so long that we would break our manifesto by putting up income tax by 2p when they would have known that wasn’t true?" The minister criticised the handling of the budget, calling it "a disaster from start to finish."
Cabinet Office Minister Darren Jones has been defending the Chancellor, reiterating her line that she did not mislead anyone. The argument centres on the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) forecasts. While the Treasury highlighted a productivity downgrade, it did not publicly offset this with higher-than-expected tax revenues. Reeves and Jones maintain that even with the OBR's more favourable figures revealed last Friday, tax rises were still necessary to create sufficient fiscal headroom.
The government may face an urgent question in the Commons this afternoon regarding the OBR's pre-budget forecasts given to the Treasury.
Today's political agenda also includes a Q&A with Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson facing Commons questions, and evidence sessions on the banning of Maccabi Tel Aviv fans from a football match.
