The Stafford byelection in northern Brisbane is anticipated to swing toward the ruling Liberal National Party (LNP), a result that political analysts warn could be fatal for former premier Steven Miles' leadership of the Queensland Labor Party. Voters headed to the polls on Saturday following the sudden death of independent MP Jimmy Sullivan in April.
If Labor loses the seat, it would mark the first time in 50 years that a state opposition party has lost a byelection to the government, intensifying pressure on Miles. Sullivan, who faced a 6.83% swing against him in the 2024 election, was expelled from the Labor Party in May 2025 due to legal and medical issues after taking a months-long leave of absence and enduring repeated personal attacks in parliament.
Historical Context and Margins
Stafford, a historically working-class suburb in north Brisbane, has been almost continuously held by Labor since 1989. From 2001 to 2006, it was represented by Sullivan's father, Terry Sullivan. With a margin of 5.3%, it was the 12th-closest Labor seat at the 2024 election and is considered marginal.
Preference Decisions
The Greens' how-to-vote card did not recommend preferences for either Labor or the LNP, unlike in 2024. One Nation chose not to field a candidate, a decision defended by Pauline Hanson's chief of staff as a prudent use of party resources given the short four-week campaign.
Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams predicted that LNP candidate Fiona Hammond is likely to win with 51-52% of the vote after preferences. Notionally, Labor still holds the seat with a 5.3% two-party preferred margin, but recent polling indicates the LNP is on track for an unexpected and historic victory.
Implications for Leadership
Williams emphasized that even a reduction in Labor's margin would be a loss for Miles. "If they lose the seat, it's huge. To lose a seat in Brisbane for Labor is very consequential," he said. A loss would likely be terminal to Miles' leadership, with shadow treasurer Shannon Fentiman seen as the best-placed challenger.
Williams also noted that One Nation's absence likely cost the LNP a guaranteed victory via preferences, as the party might have polled 12-20% in the current political climate. The Greens' decision not to allocate preferences would only matter in a very close result.
On Friday, Miles stated that the byelection was an opportunity for voters to send a message to the Crisafulli government, but he insisted the outcome would not change the government or Labor's leadership.
