Reform UK Surges Ahead of Conservatives in Latest Polling Data
In a dramatic shift for British politics, Reform UK has overtaken the Conservative Party in recent polls, according to exclusive analysis from Sky News. The data, collected in February 2026, shows Reform leading with approximately 23% of the vote, compared to the Conservatives' 17%. This development marks a significant challenge for one of the world's oldest political parties, which faces an existential threat from the younger, radical right-wing movement.
Electoral Pact Proposal Meets Widespread Voter Resistance
Despite suggestions that the Conservatives and Reform UK should form an electoral pact to unite against Labour, polling indicates limited public appetite for such an alliance. An Ipsos survey of 2,518 adults found that nearly half of Britons oppose a Conservative-Reform pact, with only 18% in favor. Among current Conservative supporters, 39% would oppose the idea, while just 31% support it, resulting in a net support of -8%. Reform supporters show slightly more openness, with 38% in favor and 30% opposed, yielding a net support of +2%.
Professor Rob Ford of Manchester University explains, "The surface appeal of a pact doesn't survive scrutiny. Though both parties draw from the same side of the spectrum, they are now distinct demographically and attitudinally." This sentiment is echoed in the polling, which reveals deep divisions: 50% of Reform supporters dislike the Conservatives, and 57% of Conservative supporters dislike Reform UK.
Reform Voting Index Highlights Geographic Advantages
Sky News, in collaboration with election experts, developed the Reform Voting Index (RVI) to assess which party holds the advantage in constituencies across Britain. The index combines current polling with demographic factors such as age, education, and EU referendum votes. Results show Reform leading in 316 seats, while the Conservatives are ahead in only 93. An additional 223 seats are too close to call, indicating a likely split in the right-wing vote.
Reform dominates in Scotland, Wales, and London, where it leads in all but three constituencies. However, in the South of England, the Conservatives retain strength in dozens of seats. The East of England emerges as the biggest battleground, with most constituencies too close to predict. Alarmingly for the Tories, only 58 of the 121 seats they won in 2024 remain solidly Conservative, with 59 too close and four leaning toward Reform.
Potential for Left-Wing Alliance and Conservative Recovery
A right-wing pact could inadvertently strengthen the left, as polling suggests an alliance between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party is more popular, with a net opposition of -15% compared to -30% for a Conservative-Reform pact. Supporters of these left-wing parties show a net support of +23%, indicating greater cohesion.
Despite Reform's surge, there are opportunities for Conservative recovery. Ipsos polling identifies a cohort of "inbetweeners"—voters who supported the Conservatives in 2024 but now back Reform. Current Reform supporters are more open to voting Conservative in the future (24%) compared to 2024 Reform voters (20%). Additionally, Kemi Badenoch enjoys higher favorability among Reform supporters than Nigel Farage does among Conservatives, suggesting potential for vote recapture.
Long-Term Outlook and Methodology
With three years until the next general election, the political landscape remains fluid. Reform has tripled its support from 8% to 24% over the past three years, but factors like Labour's decline and the Green Party's rise could shift dynamics. The Reform Voting Index, based on demographic modeling and current polling, provides a snapshot but does not account for all variables.
In summary, while Reform UK currently leads the battle for the right, an electoral pact with the Conservatives faces significant voter opposition and risks losing as many votes as it gains. The path forward for both parties remains uncertain, with ample room for change before the next election.
