One Nation's surge in the polls, rising from 6% in the last election to first or second place in recent surveys, has thrown Australian politics into "unknown territory," according to pollster George Hasanakos of DemosAu. The party's support now rivals Labor and the Coalition, but its path to government faces a significant hurdle: inner metropolitan seats.
One Nation's support concentrated outside cities
Hasanakos notes that One Nation continues to perform poorly in inner metropolitan electorates. To attain government, the party would likely need to win three-quarters of the 107 seats in outer metropolitan and rural and regional areas. These areas comprise 62 rural/regional seats and 45 outer metropolitan seats, compared to 43 inner metropolitan seats.
In last year's federal election, One Nation was one of the final two candidates in only two seats and made the final three in 26 seats. However, DemosAu's March MRP poll suggests that on current numbers, a One Nation candidate would reach the final three in well over 100 seats.
Preference flow uncertainty complicates seat projections
Australia's preferential voting system adds complexity. Traditionally, pollsters estimated two-party preferred numbers based on historical preference flows between Labor and the Coalition. But with One Nation now a major force, the majority of seats could come down to a contest between Labor or the Coalition versus One Nation—a scenario rarely seen before.
"We're in a situation in the polls now where One Nation is the lead conservative party," Hasanakos says. "But they've taken a large portion, perhaps half, of all the conservative voters that used to vote for the Coalition. And so the proportion of Coalition supporters who are not fans of Pauline Hanson, all of a sudden they've become a larger share of the remaining Coalition voters. So this could very well impact preference flows."
How-to-vote cards and voter behavior
Emeritus Professor Murray Goot of Macquarie University highlights the influence of how-to-vote cards handed out at polling booths. Data from Victorian and South Australian elections suggests about 40% of major party voters follow their party's cards. However, the Coalition's decline may affect its ability to staff every booth, adding further uncertainty.
Goot acknowledges One Nation's strong poll performance but cautions: "The serious matter is seats. You've got to be able to translate votes into seats, and there's no evidence that One Nation is winning as large a proportion of the seats as it is of the votes."
Interactive seat map shows tight races
DemosAu's March MRP poll found 84 seats where Labor and One Nation were the final two candidates, with the Coalition third. The preference flows from Coalition voters in these contests will be critical. Even slight changes in preference allocation could have a big impact on outcomes, given the number of tight races.
Strikingly, few of these Labor versus One Nation contests are in metropolitan areas, where nearly 90 seats are located. Without a clear path to government for One Nation, Goot suggests the "interesting question" is whether a combination of One Nation and Coalition seats could approach a majority. "For that, the Coalition has to win some metropolitan seats," he adds.
