Opposition leader Sussan Ley is facing a severe test of her authority as conservative forces within the Coalition successfully pressured her to abandon the party's commitment to net zero emissions targets.
Internal Battles Erode Leadership
Just six months after the 3 May election, Liberal supporters are witnessing a dramatic erosion of Ley's leadership. The opposition leader, elected as a moderate promising to reflect voters who abandoned the Coalition under Peter Dutton, now finds herself acceding to demands from conservative Liberals and Nationals simply to maintain party unity and hold onto her position.
Events came to a head last Thursday when Ley and shadow minister Dan Tehan confirmed the Liberal Party was dumping its support for net zero policies during a packed press conference. This decision followed weeks of messy posturing on climate and energy policy that slowly undermined Ley's authority both within the party room and with voters.
Conservative Agenda Advances
Even before the net zero announcement, Coalition rightwingers were already preparing their next policy battle. Liberal-National MP Garth Hamilton immediately put colleagues on notice that immigration would be the next frontline for conservative policy fights.
Hamilton, a Queenslander who previously backed Andrew Hastie for leadership, warned that developing an immigration policy for the next election needed handling 'a lot better'. His statement highlighted the immediate and existential danger facing Ley's leadership.
The past few days have demonstrated that Ley must consistently accommodate conservative MPs to keep the Coalition together. However, this approach carries significant long-term risks. Political analysts suggest she risks compromising on everything while standing for nothing, potentially becoming leader in name only. Both paths likely end in voter rejection.
Discipline Breakdown and Political Consequences
Ley's efforts to establish herself as opposition leader have been consistently undermined by colleagues' ill discipline and political hot-headedness. Conservatives including Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and Andrew Hastie have moved to the backbench, while dumped shadow minister Sarah Henderson has openly criticised the party's direction.
Nationals including Matt Canavan and Barnaby Joyce have repeatedly raged against net zero in multiple interviews, keeping the opposition's most awkward policy area in the spotlight. The Coalition parties even split for the first time in decades back in May, eventually reuniting after just 48 hours.
With more than two years remaining until the next election, the opposition should be focusing on Labor's significant challenges in reducing electricity costs and meeting tough emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2035. Instead, the Coalition repeatedly throws itself into the spotlight, proving that nearly 20 years of civil war over climate policy remains unresolved.
Ley deserves some blame for the Coalition's spotty political performance. Critics point to backflips on her once strong support for Palestine and ending live animal exports. Her attacks on Anthony Albanese for wearing a Joy Division T-shirt and calls for Kevin Rudd's recall from Washington have raised questions about her political judgement.
The Albanese government can hardly believe its luck. After suburban Liberals complained that voters punished them for Joyce's political baggage, his private member's bill to tear up the legal framework for reducing carbon emissions has been a gift to Labor.
Ley ultimately realised her plan for a lengthy policy process led by shadow energy minister Dan Tehan was unsustainable. She convened a nearly five-hour party room meeting on Wednesday, where it became clear opponents of net zero had the numbers. Savvy organisation by Hamilton and fellow Queenslander Henry Pike meant the group arrived for cameras as a united force.
By Thursday, Liberal shadow ministers had locked in the decision, with Ley tasking Tehan and frontbenchers Anne Ruston and Jonathon Duniam with crafting a joint policy with the Nationals. The released documents prioritise cheaper electricity but confirm the Coalition opposes formal emissions reduction targets.
Having stabilised the situation temporarily, Ley appeared to gently push back on conservatives regarding migration at an event hosted by John Howard on Thursday night. She stressed that individual migrant communities should not be blamed for government infrastructure failures.
Ley has tasked moderate Paul Scarr with crafting a new immigration policy, a decision that prompted her blow-up with Andrew Hastie. If Scarr can thread the needle with conservative colleagues and rebuild support in multicultural communities, it will benefit both Ley and the Liberals.
Current polls show voters equate net zero ambition with serious climate action, a message reinforced by Liberal director Andrew Hirst in the party room this week. However, journalists and Labor would be foolhardy to assume public sentiment cannot change before the next election, especially as cost of living issues continue to bite.
Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull lashed the party on Thursday night, suggesting abandoning net zero shows the Coalition 'does not take climate change seriously'. Meanwhile, a banner on Sky News screens crowed: 'Moderate Liberals lose net zero fight'.
For Sussan Ley, this might be only the first battle in a long and bitter war that could determine both her political future and the Coalition's electoral prospects.
