The winter break is approaching, but before then the Albanese government is racing to secure deals with the Greens on tax changes and the Coalition on NDIS reforms. With a thumping lower house majority, Labor confidently introduced contentious tax changes it hadn't taken to the last election, but a rockier Senate path complicates passage.
Government seeks wins amid poll decline
Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers said their negative gearing and capital gains tax changes aimed to counter the rise of Pauline Hanson and populist economic anger. However, the government continues to slip in polls, while One Nation claims to have raised over $4 million from thousands of donors in its “fire the liar” campaign focused on a “broken promise” narrative.
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor, despite battling for attention against Hanson, has intensified critiques of Labor's alleged “assault on aspiration” and “half-arsed” carve-outs for business. The government is keen for a win and to pass its package this sitting fortnight before the long winter break, hoping to spend July and August highlighting positives rather than haggling over negatives.
Greens and Coalition at odds
Enter the Greens, who are agreeable to Labor's tax changes and could finalize a deal early this week. But they are furious about proposed NDIS cuts. The Coalition, conversely, opposes the tax changes but supports NDIS reforms. Normally, Labor would cut deals with each party on their preferred changes, but both are so angry they may block wherever possible.
Labor and the Greens remain in productive discussions on tax, including a partial backdown on ministerial discretion after Greens criticism. However, the Greens will likely do everything to stop NDIS changes. They believe an inquiry into the NDIS overhaul, due to table a delayed report on Tuesday, will be extended. The Liberals want a longer inquiry on tax, creating brinkmanship all around.
Concerns over NDIS cuts
The Greens are not alone in worrying about NDIS changes. After weeks of harrowing Senate testimony on the effects of cuts on the disability community, opposition NDIS spokesperson Melissa McIntosh warned of “the rush to cut expenditure”, stating that “people are not line items on a spreadsheet”. Whispers suggest some Labor MPs are uneasy; a Labor-led committee report warned the changes appeared “retrogressive”.
Albanese will convene a national cabinet meeting on Monday, with the fuel excise cut and whether states will forego GST revenue to fund petrol relief on the agenda. Premiers and chief ministers' alarm at NDIS changes and how states will deliver “like-for-like” services is also expected to arise.
Savings versus alternatives
The argument that delaying NDIS legislation could delay $17 billion in expected savings holds little sway with the Greens. Nick McKim criticized “$33 billion a year just in negative gearing handouts for people with two or more properties”, while Larissa Waters claimed $17 billion could be raised through a gas tax, which Labor has ruled out.
This fortnight will focus on deal-making. It remains unclear whether the government will secure two deals and enter the winter break on a high, or none, facing a long wait until mid-August for another chance to change its fortunes.
