Former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale has said that the UK's decision to leave the European Union bolstered support for Scottish independence, which a decade after the Brexit referendum stands at near-record levels. Speaking about the aftermath of the 2016 vote, Dugdale noted that the Brexit result 'creates a frame around fairness' for many in Scotland, where 62% of voters backed Remain but were ultimately taken out of the EU.
Immediate Aftermath and Political Realignment
Dugdale recalled feeling 'utterly devastated' when the Leave result was confirmed early on 24 June 2016. That morning, she spoke privately to then-First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, telling her: 'This changes everything.' She believed the UK government's embrace of a 'hard Brexit' swayed many Scots who had been undecided about independence in the 2014 referendum. Support for independence currently stands at about 50%, reaching 55% in some polls.
Ruth Davidson, Scottish Conservative leader in 2016 and a Remain campaigner, was also shocked by the result. She recalled Sturgeon seeking to persuade her to 'move forward together' with Dugdale for a second independence vote. 'I can remember thinking no, no, no,' Davidson said. 'The Remain vote shouldn't be co-opted for something it wasn't for.'
Sturgeon's Reaction and Missed Opportunities
In her memoir, Sturgeon wrote: 'I felt distraught and enraged by the prospect of Brexit and what it said about Scotland's powerlessness within the UK. I had a strong sense of If not now, when?' There was speculation that support for independence could surpass 60%, but the expected tidal wave did not materialise. Over the past decade, the issue's salience faded amid crises including Boris Johnson's hard Brexit, the Covid pandemic, the Ukraine war, and Donald Trump's presidencies, which translated into deep economic and public service insecurity.
Electoral Consequences
The electoral realities of the tension between Brexit and independence were evident as early as 2017. Sturgeon's attempts to leverage Remain anger into a case for a second referendum floundered. The Conservative government under Theresa May resisted her demands, and support for independence fell below 40% during 2017. In the 2017 general election, the SNP lost 21 Westminster seats and its vote share fell 13 points, while pro-UK parties – the Tories, Labour, and Lib Dems – gained seats.
Davidson, a staunch unionist, retained her 'animosity' towards Boris Johnson, whom she believes neglected to show genuine leadership and failed to articulate a coherent vision for a unified post-Brexit Britain. However, the 'Boris effect' on independence support was less significant than she had feared. 'There was a hierarchy of concern,' she said. 'Whether we were for independence or for staying in the UK was a more material concern than the UK's relationship with the EU.'
Fluctuating Support and Economic Impact
During 2019, with Johnson succeeding May and pursuing a hard Brexit, followed by his Covid blunders in 2020, independence polling surged. As Sturgeon became a commanding presence, support for leaving the UK reached 59% by October 2020. Economic decline and NHS fears now dominate the Scottish political agenda. Dugdale traces much of this to Brexit's impact on the UK economy.
Based on estimates from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Scottish Europe Minister Stephen Gethins told Holyrood on 18 June that Brexit led to £3.3 billion in lost revenue for Scotland last year and added £250 to food bills. Professor Mairi Spowage of the Fraser of Allander Institute noted that while Brexit clearly hit economic output, EU exports, and public finances, its precise impacts were obscured by other crises and policy failures, including the 2008 banking crisis, Covid, Ukraine, the Truss government, US trade policy, and Middle East wars.
Recent Political Landscape
Despite First Minister John Swinney's efforts to make independence and EU rejoining central to recent Holyrood elections, the SNP achieved only 38% of the vote, its lowest since 2007. The anti-EU party Reform UK won 17 seats, becoming jointly Holyrood's second-largest party, drawing some voters who once backed the SNP. Dugdale, now an associate director at Glasgow University's Centre for Public Policy, is no longer a Labour member and voted SNP in the 2019 European Parliament election in protest over Brexit.
'Many voters are now driven by anger and disillusionment, partly because of a belief that Brexit failed to deliver on its supporters' promises,' Dugdale said. 'We've had more than 15 years of austerity and 15 years of falling trust in political institutions. If we sustain these things long enough, people no longer trust the system to make their lives better.'
