Europe stands at a critical juncture as it confronts the possibility of an unjust peace settlement being imposed upon Ukraine, with the continent's own security hanging in the balance. The revelation of secret US-backed proposals has sent shockwaves through European capitals, raising urgent questions about whether Europe can prevent a lopsided agreement that would reward Russian aggression.
The Leaked Proposal That Shook Europe
European governments found themselves blindsided last week when a 28-point peace plan was leaked to media outlets. The proposed terms appeared so favourable to Moscow that analysts suspect Kremlin involvement in its drafting, pointing to awkward Russian syntax in the document's language.
This punitive blueprint would freeze current battle lines while forcing Kyiv to surrender territories it still controls. The conditions include drastically limiting Ukraine's military capacity, granting amnesty for Russian war crimes and atrocities, and permanently barring Ukraine from NATO membership. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rightly described this as one of the most difficult moments in his nation's history.
Adding to the pressure, former President Donald Trump delivered an ultimatum to Ukraine: accept Russia's demands by Thanksgiving or face the potential withdrawal of US intelligence and military support. Though Trump has since softened his deadline, the threat underscored the precarious position in which Ukraine finds itself.
Europe Pushes Back Against Capitulation
In what felt like a repeat of August's diplomatic drama, when Trump welcomed Vladimir Putin in Alaska while sidelining European leaders, European powers have mounted a coordinated response. France, Germany and the United Kingdom have reportedly helped Ukraine resist the most damaging aspects of the initial proposal.
Emergency talks in Geneva have produced some modifications to uphold Ukraine's sovereignty, though significant concerns remain. European involvement isn't merely about solidarity - these nations recognise they might need to deploy troops to enforce any eventual peace agreement.
Jana Kobzova of the European Council for Foreign Relations emphasised that "Europeans have agency" in these negotiations. They possess the ability to firmly reject unacceptable terms and make clear that Ukraine's security is inextricably linked to Europe's own safety.
The Russian Assets Gambit
Europe's most powerful leverage may come from an ambitious plan to use frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine's war effort and reconstruction. The European Union is considering a €140 billion reparations loan for Ukraine, secured against billions in Russian central bank deposits frozen by EU sanctions.
These confiscated assets, mostly held in Belgian repositories, could transform Ukraine's near-bankrupt status and substantially strengthen its negotiating position. The proposal includes using $100 billion of Russian assets for investment, with the United States retaining 50% of the profits.
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has expressed skepticism about Moscow's economic resilience, noting that "They want us to believe they can continue this war forever. This is not true." New EU bans on Russian gas imports have further pressured Russia's economy.
The Stakes for European Security
The implications extend far beyond Ukraine's borders. Analysts warn that if Russia succeeds in changing borders by force, the security architecture that has maintained peace in Europe since World War II could collapse.
Nathalie Tocci, director of the Italian Institute for International Affairs, articulated the grave consequences: "If Ukraine capitulates as per Russia's plan, war in the rest of Europe is one step closer, and Europeans understand this. So it's not out of the goodness of their heart that they would stick with Ukraine, but because they understand that their own security is at stake."
Tocci suggests the most likely medium-term scenario involves the United States and Russia reaching a bilateral agreement, potentially encouraged by Trump-aligned figures like JD Vance, leaving Europe to continue supporting Ukraine independently.
As negotiations continue, with Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff expected to return to Moscow, Europe faces its moment of truth. The continent must decide whether to seize the initiative using all available tools - including the transformative potential of frozen Russian assets - or risk an unjust peace that could embolden aggression and bring wider conflict closer to home.
