The Israel-Gaza war, which created deep divisions within the Democratic Party and contributed to a significant defeat in the 2024 presidential election, continues to dominate US political races two years later. As the November midterms approach, progressives are leveraging declining support for Israel and broad anti-war sentiment to challenge incumbents, particularly in key Senate primaries.
Michigan Senate debate exposes party rift
A recent debate between two Democrats vying for one of the most competitive US Senate seats in Michigan openly displayed the tension between progressive and moderate camps. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive contender, accused pro-Israel groups such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac) of spending heavily against him. “They clearly want one individual and it’s not me,” El-Sayed said. “So long as our politicians continue to be bought off by Aipac, do not be surprised when we fight wars that are in their best interest to annex Lebanon, or to do genocide in Gaza.”
Moderate US Representative Haley Stevens, who benefits from pro-Israel spending, retorted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was “trashing” her on CNN that day, asserting she was not afraid to stand up to Israel. “No one owns my vote and no one owns my policies,” Stevens said. “Anyone who is contributing to my Senate campaign is doing so because of my proven record of fighting for Michigan.”
Shifting public opinion on Israel
A June poll by the Associated Press found that a third of US adults and roughly half of Democrats believe Israel has committed genocide in Gaza. The share of Democrats who said the US was too supportive of Israel reached nearly 60%, up from 45% in January 2024. While younger Democrats were more likely to hold this view, older Democrats increasingly share it as well, according to the poll.
The shift is exemplified by former Obama official and moderate Democrat Rahm Emanuel, who recently emphasized in a Tel Aviv speech that US military aid to Israel should end and said he would not take money from Aipac. Such statements would have been taboo for a moderate Democrat just a few years ago.
Pro-Israel spending and grassroots pushback
In Michigan, El-Sayed frequently ties foreign wars to affordability, advocating for investments in healthcare, schools, and infrastructure rather than sending billions overseas. His campaign launched a website highlighting Stevens’ comment that “Israel comes to me in my dreams.” The United Democracy Project, an Aipac-affiliated super PAC, has spent about $11 million to boost Stevens or oppose El-Sayed, with additional ad buys scheduled before the August 4 primary.
“We are trying to ensure that pro-Israel Democrats have a voice in the primary process,” said Patrick Dorton, a spokesman for the Aipac super PAC. “There is an insidious attempt by fringe left socialists to drive pro-Israel Democrats out of the party. We are not going to let what happened to the Labour party in the UK happen to the Democratic party in the United States.”
Despite heavy spending, pro-Israel groups face increasing headwinds. In New York, democratic socialists who spoke out against the war in Gaza notched victories against incumbents. In Colorado, a Democratic socialist fired after speaking about Gaza beat a longtime representative. A doctor who worked in Gaza won a Democratic primary in New Jersey. In Illinois, pro-Israel groups created pop-up PACs with benign names to spend big in Democratic primaries, largely without success.
Mixed outcomes for establishment picks
Still, establishment candidates with backing from Aipac-affiliated groups continue to win in many places. Adrian Boafo won a Democratic primary in Maryland after benefiting from millions from pro-Israel groups. “There isn’t a one-size-fits-all answer,” said Tali deGroot, vice-president of political and digital strategy for J Street, a liberal pro-Israel and pro-peace lobby group.
DeGroot noted that foreign policy usually does not crack the top five issues for voters in a general election, but it is a key differentiator in Democratic primaries. “A candidate’s willingness to buck the status quo of our foreign policy is a good example, a good symbol for them to show that they’re going to be willing to buck the status quo on all kinds of issues that people care about right now,” she said.
Gaza as a litmus test for authenticity
Former Congressman Andy Levin, who lost his seat to Stevens in 2022 after Aipac poured millions into the race, said the Gaza issue exemplifies questions about authenticity in politics. “There’s something about taking a position on Israel, Palestine and Gaza that is about authenticity,” Levin said. “The Gaza issue almost exemplifies now the questions about authenticity and truth-telling in politics that the people are caring about.”
Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist state representative in Wisconsin running for governor, said standing up for Palestine is about integrity. “Voters understand that a politician unwilling to fight against the massacre of children abroad (which we’re funding), they won’t stand up for folks back home,” Hong said via email.
State Representative Darrin Madison, also a democratic socialist in Wisconsin, said voters want to stand up against special interests trying to buy elections, such as when Elon Musk poured tens of millions into a state supreme court race. As he travels around the state, he hears that affordability is the top concern, followed by questions about whether candidates are bought by special interests.
Passionate reactions and broader implications
Misty Ramsey, a delivery driver in Macomb County, Michigan, said she was inspired by a Macklemore song about a five-year-old girl killed in Gaza to research the war. She felt the American public had been “conditioned to not care.” “If you’re pro-Israel: fuck you,” she said. “There shouldn’t be a question of if it’s OK or not.”
Ali Fawaz, 34, an independent voter in Dearborn, Michigan, said most people in his community have direct ties to Palestine or Lebanon and have seen their families affected by Israel’s attacks. He expressed frustration with both parties for aiding Israel and with outsize spending by pro-Israel groups. “When it comes to the presidency, whether it’s Democrat or Republican, we’ve seen for the last 25 years there hasn’t been a single change in the trajectory of what’s going on in the Middle East,” he said.
Levin described a broader anti-establishment wave pushing back against Democratic inaction. “Are you awake? Are you paying attention? Do you see how mad Republican and Democratic primary voters are?” he said. “They’re sick of it.”
Kat Abughazaleh, who ran in a Democratic primary for Congress in Illinois and lost, said voters frequently brought up Israel/Palestine because it was a “litmus test for a lot of reasons.” Abughazaleh, who is Palestinian, noted that Gaza came up equally in both the most conservative part of her district and in Chicago. Madison echoed this, describing the issue as a sign of whether a candidate will stand up for marginalized communities. “If you aren’t willing to take that stance, what other communities are you willing to abandon?” he asked. “Is that folks of color, rural communities, working-class communities?”
Whether these dynamics will translate to the general election remains uncertain, but ongoing conflict in Iran and high gas prices keep the issues in the news. For many voters, a position on Gaza is a required part of a progressive platform.
