China's Missile Test Draws Swift Condemnation
China's decision to conduct a missile test in the Pacific at short notice has prompted swift condemnation from leaders including the US, Australia, and New Zealand, who have accused Beijing of destabilizing the region. The test was carried out on Monday, with the missile reportedly flying thousands of kilometers across the Pacific in what China described as a routine military exercise.
China has urged foreign nations not to over-interpret the test, but it has set alarm bells ringing among leaders and experts. The test marked Beijing's second publicly acknowledged long-range missile launch into the Pacific in less than two years, following an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test in September 2024 that also drew regional criticism.
Regional Concerns Over Transparency and Intentions
Regional neighbors believe they were given insufficient notice and information about the test, and it is unclear if the US was notified. Matthew Wale, prime minister of the Solomon Islands, a country that has been one of China's closest partners in the South Pacific, said: 'China is a good friend of Solomon Islands, but this is not something a friend does.'
Leaders and experts have also expressed alarm over China's military and nuclear buildup and a lack of transparency over its intentions. Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the demonstration was likely designed to 'compel the US to treat China as a more equal partner.' Zhao added that 'this very high-profile test is really lifting the curtain on a potential new era of massive nuclear submarine expansion,' warning that when China's technology catches up to the US, it could 'severely undermine' America's military security in the Asia Pacific.
Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said China was 'sending a pretty clear signal' to the US and Taiwan that it 'means business.' He noted that the test itself was less of a problem than China's opacity over its nuclear program: 'We, the US, have been putting pressure on China to agree to an arms control agreement, more transparency behind their nuclear program. They're not giving that to us, so it's definitely going to ratchet up the tension.'
China's Official Statement
A Chinese navy statement said a nuclear submarine launched a 'strategic missile carrying a training simulation warhead' on Monday, adding it had 'accurately landed in the designated sea area.' China's foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning, according to a translated version of remarks posted on an official government website, hoped countries would 'not over-interpret it.' Ning said the test was 'a routine part of China's annual military training, in accordance with international law and practice, and is not directed against any specific country or target.' She added: 'Relevant countries were notified in advance, and it complies with international law and practice. The launch activity was conducted safely, systematically, and professionally throughout.'
Details of the Missile and Its Trajectory
China's defense ministry did not confirm whether an ICBM was used in Monday's test. However, Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert, told the state-run Global Times that the missile was likely a JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile, first formally unveiled during Beijing's September 2025 military parade. Its range likely exceeds 10,000 kilometers, making it an ICBM, the report said.
Su Tzu-yun, director at Taiwan's Institute for National Defence and Security Research, said unlike the older JL-2, the JL-3 would allow Chinese submarines to threaten targets in the central United States without leaving waters off China's coast. 'The launch reflected Beijing's shift from maintaining a minimum nuclear deterrent to developing a more coercive nuclear posture capable of influencing other countries' strategic decisions,' Su said, drawing comparisons with how Russia's nuclear arsenal has shaped NATO's response to the war in Ukraine. Joseph Wu, secretary-general of Taiwan's national security council, posted on social media a map purporting to show the missile's path traveling south-east of China, going over the Philippines and passing Micronesia and Palau, landing south of Nauru.
Timing and Geopolitical Context
Some observers have noted that the test came just hours after Australia and Fiji signed a major defense alliance, committing each country to come to the other's aid in the event of an attack. The so-called Ocean of Peace alliance, which is open to other countries to join in the future, is part of Australia's efforts to deepen ties in the Pacific and push back at Beijing's attempts to expand its influence. Su, meanwhile, said the timing may also have been intended to send a signal to NATO, whose summit in Turkey began on 7 July.
But others say the timing is largely irrelevant. David Capie, director of the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria University of Wellington, said: 'These tests are usually organized months in advance and require a whole lot of things to fall into place.'
