In an embarrassing pre-Budget blunder, the Office for Budget Responsibility accidentally published its economic forecast document hours before Chancellor Rachel Reeves was due to deliver her autumn statement to Parliament.
Premature Publication Sparks Political Row
The Budget watchdog's full economic and fiscal outlook went live on its website early on Wednesday, November 26, revealing key details that should have remained confidential until after Ms Reeves' Commons address. The document was quickly removed, but not before the damage was done.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch immediately seized upon the error, pressing Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer on whether he would order an investigation into what she called damaging budget leaks. "The Prime Minister doesn't seem to appreciate the impact of these budget leaks on the UK economy," she declared, urging him to "punish" those responsible.
Sir Keir Starmer responded by deflecting attention to his government's achievements, stating: "It's literally about 25 minutes before the Budget will be set out where we'll take further decisions, the Chancellor set it out." He highlighted five million extra NHS appointments, reduced waiting lists, cheaper mortgages and expanded free school meals as evidence of his government's progress.
Revised Growth Forecasts Revealed
The accidentally published OBR document contained significant revisions to the UK's economic outlook. While growth for this year was upgraded from 1% to 1.5%, the watchdog substantially downgraded its projections for subsequent years.
Growth in 2026 was cut from 1.9% to 1.4%, while 2027 saw a reduction from 1.8% to 1.5%. The forecasts for both 2028 and 2029 were similarly adjusted downward to 1.5% growth.
The OBR confirmed in a statement that "a link to our economic and fiscal outlook document went live on our website too early this morning" and apologised for the "technical error." The watchdog has initiated an investigation and will report to its oversight board, the Treasury, and the Commons Treasury Committee.
Tax Rises and Policy Measures Exposed
Among the key revelations in the prematurely published document were details of substantial tax increases. The OBR confirmed that Rachel Reeves' Budget "raises taxes by amounts rising to £26 billion in 2029-30", primarily through freezing personal tax thresholds and other measures.
The threshold freeze alone will drag 780,000 more people into paying basic-rate income tax and 920,000 into higher-rate tax by 2029/30, generating approximately £8 billion for the Treasury. This freeze will now extend for three years to 2030/31.
Other significant personal tax changes include:
- £4.7 billion through charging national insurance on salary-sacrificed pension contributions
- £2.1 billion through increasing tax rates on dividends, property and savings income
Additional policy measures revealed in the document include the removal of the two-child benefit cap at an estimated cost of £3 billion by 2029-30, and the introduction of a high-value council tax surcharge on properties worth more than £2 million, expected to raise £0.4 billion.
The OBR also confirmed that the 5p cut in fuel duty will remain until September 2026 before being reversed through a staggered approach, while government debt is projected to rise from 95% of GDP this year to 96.1% by the end of the decade.
This incident marks the latest in a series of leaks and early disclosures that have plagued the run-up to Ms Reeves' important Budget statement, raising questions about protocol and information security within government economic reporting.
