A new survey indicates that Australia would no longer be a majority religious country if the format of the census question on religion were altered. The Essential Media poll tested two versions of the question, revealing a significant shift in responses.
Current census format vs. proposed alternative
Under the existing format, respondents choose from a list that includes major religions, “no religion,” and “other.” In the 2021 census, 39% selected “no religion.” However, the new survey shows that when asked in the same format, 43% chose “no religion.” When given a simple yes/no question first (“Do you have a religion?”) followed by a text box for those answering “yes,” 54% picked “no.” This difference represents approximately 2 million adults.
The poll was commissioned by the Census – Not Religious? Mark No Religion campaign, which argues that the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) format overstates the nation’s religiousness. Spokesperson Michael Dove, a self-described “demography nerd,” emphasized that the census is the “gold standard” for data that informs policy and funding decisions. “We trust the ABS to deliver us high-quality data that we can rely on and be confident that the right decisions are being made on the basis of the right data,” he said.
Historical context and controversy
The religion question has long been contentious. In 2001, over 70,000 Australians declared themselves Jedi Knights, inspired by Star Wars. Pastafarians, members of the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster, have checked “no religion” to avoid being counted as Christians. According to ABS data, Christianity has steadily declined over 50 years but remained the most common religion at the last census, with 43.9% listing it, while 38.9% ticked “no religion.” The number of people from non-Christian faiths and those with no religion has consistently risen.
Poll methodology and results
The survey polled over 2,000 people using the existing census question and another group of over 2,000 with the proposed alternative. In the first group, 43% selected “no religion,” 55% selected a religion, and 2% chose not to answer. With the second option, the numbers flipped: 43% said they had a religion, 54% said they did not, and 4% chose not to answer. Religious affiliation was lower among those aged 18-34 (34%) and higher among those with a university education (50%) in the second group. The poll surveyed adults, while the census includes children, with adults filling out forms for younger children.
ABS response and future outlook
After the 2021 census, the ABS considered changing the question, acknowledging feedback that the wording “assumes you have a religion.” However, it decided against changes, citing potential loss of comparability with previous censuses. Dove said campaign members participated in two rounds of consultation, and the bureau was responsive but ultimately rejected the change. “I think they have been compromised by the lobbying from the religious groups [who] have the strongest vested interests,” he stated. “It needs to be fixed.”
The ABS stated it consulted with religious and secular organizations and found it “not possible to design a question(s) that will meet the range of needs identified” while supporting comparability. It has added extra instructions, updated examples, reordered categories to reflect the most common religious groups, and changed data processing to record the most granular detail. Dove noted that for the 2026 census, “the ship’s sailed,” adding, “We’ve already got our eyes on 2031.”
