Andy Burnham is coming back to Westminster after winning the Makerfield by-election, a gamble that has paid off for the Labour Party. The Mayor of Greater Manchester secured his seat in Parliament, defeating Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon by more than 9,000 votes. The victory was never guaranteed, especially after Reform performed strongly in local elections just weeks earlier.
The Significance of the Win
Burnham's win is seen as a lifeline for Labour, which had been struggling in the polls. A loss to Reform would have suggested the party's brand was irredeemably tainted, even with a popular candidate like Burnham. Instead, he won thousands more votes than all other candidates combined, demonstrating a path back from the polling doldrums.
What Happens Now?
Burnham is expected to meet with Prime Minister Keir Starmer this weekend to discuss the future. Allies suggest Burnham will gently urge Starmer to set a timetable for his departure. However, Starmer has insisted he will fight any leadership contest, citing a five-year mandate and a duty to provide stability. Cabinet members like Ed Miliband and Lisa Nandy may pressure Starmer to step down, potentially leading to a messy internal battle.
The by-election also triggers a contest to replace Burnham as Mayor of Greater Manchester. Reform UK is expected to target this position, but the supplementary vote system, which uses ranked preferences, could make it harder for them to win. The Green Party, which gained seats in local elections, could also be a strong contender.
Overall, the political drama is far from over. Burnham's return to Westminster sets the stage for a leadership challenge and a potential shift in Labour's direction.
