In just 48 hours, the prime minister, Keir Starmer, has felt the weight of political gravity and shifted from initial adamance that he would fight on to glum acceptance of his likely departure. The change of tone from Starmer and his supporters has been striking, charting a rapid shift in his position on his own future.
Friday morning: 'If there is a contest, then yes, I will stand'
Speaking on a housing-related visit in north London on Friday morning, Starmer was adamant – even after Andy Burnham's substantial victory in the Makerfield byelection and return to parliament – he would not go without a fight. "I have said repeatedly, I am not going to walk away from that," the prime minister said, adding, a touch hopefully: "Let's pull together as a party and a movement."
Friday lunchtime: 'The prime minister is very much getting on with the business'
The daily No 10 media briefings are traditionally led by a civil servant, tasked with reflecting Downing Street's views. Unsurprisingly, questions about possible departure were batted away in a flurry of government speak. The impression was, however, slightly unconvincing, given every journalist in the room knew that Starmer was, by then, discussing what he might do next.
Friday afternoon: 'Those who don't see which way this is going are going to inevitably end up looking like they were the last ones in the bunker'
An anonymous but evocative quote from a cabinet minister to the Guardian later on Friday, as ministers assessed their options and saw which way the mood was going. As another figure said: "Everyone thinks it is over and everyone wants it to be a dignified, orderly exit."
Saturday morning: 'The herd is stampeding'
By Saturday, Harriet Harman, a Labour grandee and peer with great knowledge of the party, was very clear on how she thought things were going. Speaking to Sky News, Harman paraphrased Boris Johnson's wildlife-based analogy for his own downfall and called for swift action, saying the government could not exist "in a state of paralysis all through the summer." She added: "We don't want a situation where cabinet ministers are resigning to try and push Keir Starmer out."
Sunday morning: 'I don't want to come on here and be delusional'
Peter Kyle, the business secretary, was handed the unenviable task of going out on Sunday's broadcast round to be repeatedly asked whether Starmer had decided to set out a timetable for departure on Monday. While maintaining he had no inside knowledge, Kyle said he had talked at length to the prime minister on Friday, who had been "very mindful of the interests of the country," asking Kyle for his advice. His observation that Starmer was aware of the "political realities" left little room for doubt about what he expects to happen. It was a tricky balancing act – be loyal while not resembling an Iraqi government spokesperson insisting all is well as US tanks rumble into Baghdad – and Kyle pulled it off. The subtext was clear: yes, a new prime minister is on the way.
