A residential building in Muharraq, near the international airport, was hit by an Iranian drone on Sunday, according to the Bahraini interior ministry. The attack marks a dramatic escalation just 10 days after Iran and the US signed a memorandum of understanding to end the conflict, threatening to put the two countries back on the path to war.
Memorandum wording proves too broad
The deliberately opaque wording in the 14-point memorandum has been unable to withstand the pressure of conflicting interpretations, according to analysis. Supporters of the deal inside Tehran are on the back foot, with statements proliferating that Iran's government should never have agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, not just among hardliners.
The document was intentionally broad on two key issues: the Lebanon ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz, hoping that trust would develop. Instead, the agreement is crumbling, with each side accusing the other of violating its terms.
Lebanon ceasefire contradictions
In Lebanon, two ceasefire agreements have been agreed that pull against each other. The first ceasefire, mentioned in the memorandum and developed at the Lucerne talks attended by US Vice-President JD Vance, gave a new role for Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Iran was to join a new deconfliction mechanism, appearing to squeeze out Israel.
The second, fuller ceasefire signed by Israel and the Lebanese government in Washington on Friday and overseen by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reverses that by excluding Iran and Hezbollah. It allows Israel to remain in southern Lebanon until the complete disarmament of Hezbollah, a condition the Shia force could never accept. The agreement, signed by Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, also contains a clause stating both sides will cease all hostile actions in all legal fora, leaving Israel immune from prosecution for alleged war crimes in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded triumphantly: "We will stay in the area until Hezbollah's weapons and those of the remaining terrorist groups are dismantled." However, it remains highly questionable whether the ceasefire could ever be acceptable to Hezbollah or Iran.
Strait of Hormuz impasse
The memorandum has also proved ineffective in opening the Strait of Hormuz. The document states Iran will "make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels" through the strait with no charge for 60 days, leaving "arrangements" and "best efforts" undefined. It made no reference to other actions to clear the strait, leaving the impression that Iran was the dominant actor.
Iran had been working with the UN's International Maritime Organization (IMO) and Oman on an evacuation plan to allow hundreds of ships through the strait. IMO Secretary General Arsenio Domínguez felt he had Iran's agreement to launch a plan offering a northern and southern route. Yet on Thursday morning, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy said ships could only use the northern route to exit, and in the afternoon, the Ever Lovely, a Singapore-flagged Evergreen container ship built in 2015, was struck while transiting a southern route close to Oman. Domínguez halted the scheme, saying the IMO would not put seafarers at risk, but ships have continued to venture through the strait.
Behind the incident may be an Iranian fear that the southern route along Oman's coast will give the US a way to end the Iranian chokehold. Oman and Iran are discussing a long-term solution for management of the strait, with Oman likely framing proposals under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos), ruling out tolls. Article 41 allows strait states to designate sea lanes and set up traffic separation schemes, while Article 43 would allow Oman, in consultation with the IMO, to ask stakeholders to contribute to a funded cooperative mechanism for navigational aids. Charges could be levied by Oman for specific safety services if they confer a direct benefit on a ship, but no general levy is allowed.
For now, as bombing recommences, creative legal ideas appear set aside as the men of war return to centre stage.
