French police are investigating allegations of tampering with national weather forecasting service equipment after a series of unusual temperature readings coincided with suspicious winning bets on the online platform Polymarket.
Unusual Temperature Spikes at Charles de Gaulle Airport
Data from a Météo-France weather station at Paris's Charles de Gaulle airport was used to settle bets between online gamblers on the temperature in Paris for March and the first weeks of April. On several days, more than $500,000 was wagered on these outcomes. Three separate wallets made over $280,000 by betting that the temperature would reach 19C on 15 April, after the reading unexpectedly jumped by 5C that evening.
Timing of Bets Raises Suspicions
The timing of some bets has prompted speculation that gamblers tampered with the station. One wager was placed just before a temperature spike, resulting in a $21,000 profit for an anonymous user who also has money on weather in Seoul and Toronto. On Polymarket Discord channels, users shared an AI-generated image of a man with a hairdryer aimed at the weather station, with one asking: "What did you do to the temperature sensor at Paris airport yesterday? Was your weapon of choice a hairdryer or a lighter?"
Police Investigation and Météo-France Complaint
French police confirmed they received a complaint from Météo-France, and the cybercrime division is investigating. The forecasting service told the Financial Times that "physical findings on one of our instruments and the analysis of sensor data" led to the complaint. Polymarket has stopped using the Charles de Gaulle sensor and now relies on one at Paris-Le Bourget airport, but did not cancel contracts or refund bets.
Broader Concerns About Polymarket
The expansion of Polymarket, which has investors including a venture capital firm owned by Donald Trump Jr, raises concerns that reality may become subject to the whims of online gamblers. Bettors threatened an Israeli journalist after he reported a missile hit near Jerusalem, due to nearly $1 million staked on whether Iran would strike Israel. Gamblers have also discussed contacting the Institute for the Study of War to influence bets on the Ukraine war. Neither the institute, the journalist, nor Météo-France have a say in whether their reports determine bets. Traders and institutional investors, including Goldman Sachs, are using Polymarket data, but thin markets raise concerns about manipulation.
