Keir Starmer is widely expected to announce a timetable for his departure from Downing Street, possibly as early as Monday, marking the beginning of a handover process that will be relatively leisurely by UK standards. The prime minister, who entered No 10 after a July 2024 election victory, has faced increasing pressure to set a date, with the Greater Manchester mayor turned MP Andy Burnham pushing for a September exit.
Two Scenarios for Leadership Transition
According to sources, Burnham's team has advocated for Starmer to remain until September, allowing for two main eventualities. The first scenario, which Burnham strongly prefers, would see him nominated as Labour leader by an overwhelming majority of MPs, with no challengers or those who fail to secure the required 20% support from the parliamentary party (81 MPs). This would provide clarity for ministers and civil servants, enabling Burnham to select his team and set policy priorities, potentially avoiding the unfocused start that characterized Starmer's early tenure.
Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the prime minister, has already met with Louise Haigh, a key Burnham ally and former transport secretary, to ensure continuity of government operations, particularly planning for the autumn budget.
Potential Contest with Wes Streeting
The alternative scenario involves a leadership contest if Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, or another candidate secures enough nominations. Candidates would need backing from at least 20% of MPs and 5% of local party branches or three affiliated groups, including at least two unions. A vote among Labour members would follow, with the party's national executive committee expected to expedite the process. The 2025 deputy leadership contest after Angela Rayner's resignation took just six and a half weeks, compared to the three-month leadership election Starmer won in 2020.
Starmer's Legacy and Caretaker Role
As a caretaker prime minister, Starmer faces a political half-life similar to Theresa May's in 2019, with limited authority but opportunities to cement his legacy. May used her final weeks to enshrine a net-zero carbon emissions target into law. Starmer is expected to remain active, including attending the NATO summit in July, while finalizing his own policy achievements. The handover process will ensure the government continues to function, with Jones playing a key role in maintaining momentum on critical tasks like budget preparations.
