Speculation about a potential electoral deal between Reform UK and the Conservative Party has been reignited by a Financial Times report, despite a firm denial from Reform leader Nigel Farage. However, a close examination of his statements reveals a more complex picture for the future of Britain's right-wing politics.
The FT Report and Farage's Public Denial
According to the Financial Times story by Anna Gross and Julie Steinberg, Nigel Farage has told donors he expects some form of pact between the two main right-wing parties before the next general election. One donor claimed Farage said a deal, be it a merger or a cooperation agreement, was expected to ease Reform's path to victory, but only on his terms. This stipulation is partly due to Farage feeling betrayed by the Conservatives after their 2019 electoral pact.
Another associate reportedly said Farage described a pact or merger as "inevitable," though it might take time, with Reform holding the power to dictate terms. In response, Farage took to social media platform X to label the story "false." He stated, "After 14 years of dishonesty & lies they should never be forgiven. The idea I’d work with them is ludicrous. They betrayed my trust in 2019 & we will ensure they cease to be a national party in May."
The Crucial Nuance in Farage's Position
The reference to May is key, as it points to the upcoming Scottish Parliament and Senedd elections in Wales. Current polling suggests Reform UK is on course to be the largest party in Wales, while the Conservatives risk winning only a handful of seats. In Scotland, while the SNP leads, Reform is also polling ahead of the Tories.
More telling was a qualifier Farage gave to the FT before publication. He told the paper: "After next May, the Conservatives will no longer be a national party. I would never do a deal with a party that I don’t trust. No deals, just a reverse takeover. A deal with them as they are would cost us votes."
Implications for the Future of the Right
This statement suggests that while Farage may rule out a deal with Kemi Badenoch's Conservative Party in its current form, he is contemplating a future where the party is diminished. Many commentators believe he is eyeing cooperation with a remnant faction under different leadership after the May elections, framing it not as a pact but as a "reverse takeover."
The issue may arise at Prime Minister's Questions, where Labour leader Keir Starmer faces Conservative minister Kemi Badenoch. The political manoeuvring underscores the significant pressure on the Conservatives from the right and the potential for a major realignment in UK politics following the May devolved elections.
