New polling data paints a complex picture of London's political landscape, revealing significant public concern about the capital's direction alongside surprising potential for Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a future mayoral contest.
London's Divided Outlook: A National and Local Perspective
A recent YouGov survey indicates that just under 20 per cent of Britons nationwide believe London is in a bad state and worse off than the rest of the country. This view is not widely shared in the capital itself, where only 14 per cent of Londoners agree. The sentiment is strongest in the North of England, where 22 per cent of voters hold this negative view.
Further analysis, conducted alongside Freshwater Strategy's monthly UK voter survey, uncovers a stark economic confidence gap. While 56 per cent of people across the UK expect the national economy to worsen in the coming year, that figure falls to 45 per cent in London. Similarly, 44 per cent of Brits anticipate their personal finances deteriorating, compared to a figure 10 percentage points lower among London residents.
The Capital's Contradictions: High Pay vs. High Unemployment
The data highlights London's economic extremes. Workers in the capital enjoy the highest median gross salary in the UK at around £50,000, significantly above the £34,000 seen in the North East and the national median of £39,000. However, this prosperity is unevenly distributed. London also suffers from the highest unemployment rate in the country at 6.5 per cent, compared to the UK-wide rate of 5 per cent.
Despite relative economic optimism, a clear majority of Londoners are unhappy with the city's trajectory. 56 per cent say London is 'heading in the wrong direction', with only 34 per cent believing it is on the right track. The cost of living is the paramount issue, followed by economic growth and improving health and social care. Notably, reducing immigration ranks fourth for Londoners, whereas it is the second most important issue nationally after the cost of living.
Political Shifts and a Green Opportunity
Political allegiances in London diverge from the national picture. While Labour trails behind Reform and the Conservatives in national polls at 19 per cent, Keir Starmer's party leads in the capital with 34 per cent support. The Tories follow at 28 per cent, with Reform on 13 per cent.
This does not translate into strong support for the current Mayor, however. A significant 60 per cent of London voters believe Sadiq Khan should not run for re-election. When presented with the name of Green Party leader Zack Polanski as a potential mayoral candidate, 40 per cent of respondents said they would consider voting for him, against 39 per cent who would not.
Interestingly, the polling suggests Mayor Khan may have inadvertently created a favourable platform for a Green challenger. His environmental policies—including the expansion of cycle lanes, Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTNs), the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), and 20mph zones—all register net positive favourability scores and are deemed to have improved living and working conditions in London.
With a majority of younger Londoners having considered leaving due to the cost of living—a key issue for Polanski's platform—the groundwork for a credible Green mayoral challenge appears to be in place. The data suggests that if Polanski decides to run, he could find a receptive electorate shaped, in part, by the policies of the incumbent.
