Tuesday 12 May 2026 9:40 am
A majority of voters are worried that a change of Labour leadership would drag the government further left, as support grows for lower taxes and less public spending, according to the latest City AM/Freshwater Strategy poll.
The survey, conducted after devastating council election results for Labour, found that 29 per cent of voters preferred Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham as the next leader of the country, topping the list of potential alternatives. Burnham came well ahead of former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, who tied on 12 per cent, with Health Secretary Wes Streeting trailing on nine per cent.
Voters polled were scathing about Sir Keir Starmer's record on the economy. Two in five voters (41 per cent) believed a new Labour leader would do a better job managing the country's finances than the current Prime Minister, compared to just eight per cent who thought they would do worse.
Burnham's relative popularity came with a caveat. A majority of respondents (52 per cent) said they are concerned that a successor would pursue a more left-wing economic agenda than Starmer, with 17 per cent describing themselves as 'very concerned'. Nearly two thirds of respondents (64 per cent) said they would prefer the government to tax less, spend less and reduce borrowing, even if it meant that investment in public services declined. Around a quarter of voters (27 per cent) expressed a preference for the opposite scenario of higher taxes and spending on public services.
The City is on high alert for a change of course in Westminster. Jordan Rochester, Head of FICC Strategy at Mizuho, said: 'I suspect the new leadership will attempt to calm down markets with a few words…but the party is shifting to the left and the market will price that in first. We've been looking for 10yr UK Gilts to selloff towards 5.15% by year end for quite some time, but this political drama accelerates the timeline, and we could see a move toward 5.20% until the political situation is settled and/or 5.35% in extreme stress.'
The findings present a dilemma for any would-be challenger, as demand for a new leader comes with some scepticism about the ideological direction of a new administration. The poll lays bare the scale of the crisis engulfing Downing Street, with some 63 per cent of voters agreeing that Starmer should resign as Labour leader. His personal net approval rating has fallen a further six points since April to a record low of -40, while the party itself sits at -29.
A quarter of all voters (25 per cent) said they would be more likely to back Labour if it changed leader, rising to one in three (33 per cent) among the party's own backers at the last election. Almost two in five (38 per cent) believe a new leader would deliver a stronger performance at the next general election.
Burnham's return could also be more problematic, as he would have to resign as mayor and find a new seat to run in a by-election, which could take months to take place.
Method note: Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,243 eligible voters in the UK, aged 18+ online, between 9 – 10 May 2026. Margin of Error +/- 2.8%. Data are weighted to be representative of UK voters. Freshwater Strategy are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.
