Polls have closed in Makerfield, Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, with the result in the north-west of England constituency byelection poised to decide the future of UK politics.
Burnham's bid for Westminster
The population of Makerfield, a constituency just outside Wigan, has found itself at the centre of British political attention after Andy Burnham quit as mayor of Greater Manchester to contest the seat. He hopes it will lead him not only to Westminster but to the front door of 10 Downing Street.
Approximately 70,000 voters have been bombarded by politicians, journalists, and campaigners, as a tight race between the Labour candidate and Reform's Robert Kenyon approached the finishing line. Estimates suggest up to 3,000 Labour campaigners arrived in Makerfield in recent days.
The race kicked off on 14 May after MP Josh Simons announced he would stand down to allow the former cabinet minister to return to Westminster to challenge Keir Starmer, following Labour's crushing local election results.
Head-to-head contest
It has been a head-to-head contest between the former culture secretary and Kenyon, a local plumber who has encountered headwinds after lacklustre public-facing performances and revelations about past social media posts. These included posts relating to Carol Vorderman, which she described as “disgusting,” as well as other sexist and lewd comments.
Makerfield, created in a 1983 reorganisation of parliamentary boundaries, has traditionally been a safe Labour seat but has moved away from the party over the past decade. Like dozens of similar post-industrial seats in northern England, it has leaned towards Reform, led by Nigel Farage.
- In eight Makerfield wards that voted in local elections, Reform took 50.4% of the vote.
- In the last general election, Simons won a majority of 5,399, taking 45.2% of the vote share, but Reform increased its vote share by 18%.
Polling predictions
Ahead of voting, constituency polls gave Burnham between a three- and 12-percentage point lead over Kenyon. Reform has faced a splitting of the rightwing vote after a small but significant growth in support for the hard-right Restore Britain. Rupert Lowe's party, launched four months ago, calls for the death penalty and mass deportations and is predicted to win about 7% of the vote.
All eyes will be on Burnham if he manages to take the seat. On Wednesday, Starmer suggested he was willing to offer the mayor of Greater Manchester a “big” job in his government, calling him “a huge asset to our party and our movement.”
But allies of Burnham, who are reported to be hoping for a “coronation” in which Starmer stands aside, said he was not interested in the offer, stating “the benefit Andy has is not having been associated with the government’s failings.”
Allies said they have had to talk ministers out of resigning as early as this weekend to avoid Starmer’s government descending into chaos amid fallout from the byelection. The prime minister has repeatedly made it clear he has no intention of standing down and has said he would fight any challenge to his leadership.
Other byelections
In Aberdeen South, the contest has been dominated by the future of North Sea oil and gas, with the Conservatives hoping to wrest control from the Scottish National party. The SNP has been confident it will hold Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.
