The Makerfield by-election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in British history. Political journalists, like their sporting counterparts, often indulge in hyperbole, but the upcoming contest—where Andy Burnham aims to stand, win, and potentially challenge Keir Starmer for the premiership—truly feels like a cup final. Even after nearly 100 Labour MPs called for Starmer to step down and the loss of Wes Streeting as Health Secretary, Starmer has bought himself a stay of execution while the party and the country await Burnham's fate.
What's at Stake?
These irregular MP contests are always dramatic, but the battle in Greater Manchester could upend British politics. Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, is not guaranteed to be selected for Makerfield. Josh Simons, who resigned the seat, was not a natural ally to the soft-left Burnham, having worked at the centre-right think tank Labour Together. However, Simons endorsed Burnham, and Starmer has indicated he won't block the mayor via the NEC. Yet sources say approval is 'on a knife-edge.' A decision is expected soon, with the by-election likely in late June or early July.
Is Burnham a Shoo-In?
Not at all. While Makerfield is a Labour stronghold and Burnham remains popular, the seat is far from safe. In 2024, Simons won a slim majority of 5,399 over Reform UK. Nigel Farage's party is resurgent, winning every ward in Makerfield at the recent local elections. Reform will throw everything at this by-election. Ironically, they campaigned to remove Starmer but now seek to defeat Burnham, which could keep Starmer in place. Burnham's allies argue that only he can take on Reform and win, but the Green Party could split the left vote, allowing Reform a path to victory.
Historical Precedents
Some by-elections become legendary. In 1963, Alec Douglas-Home used the Perthshire West and Kinross by-election to enter the Commons as Prime Minister, but lost the general election within a year. In 1967, Winnie Ewing's win in Hamilton boosted the SNP. In 1981, Bobby Sands' victory in Fermanagh and South Tyrone highlighted nationalist movements. More recently, in 2022, the Tories lost two by-elections in one day, hastening Boris Johnson's downfall.
If Burnham wins and challenges Starmer, this by-election could be the most important in British history—at least until the next one.
