Liberal Democrat supporters attended the party’s local election campaign in Birmingham, where the party is expected to increase its number of councillors in England for an unprecedented eighth consecutive set of local elections. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty
Could Lib Dems Become the Biggest Party in English Local Government?
With voter loyalty a distant memory, the Lib Dems’ cost of living policies and criticism of Donald Trump could help them gain ground. The election buildup has been dominated by the rise of Reform UK and the Greens, alongside the contrasting struggles of Labour and the Conservatives. However, on 8 May, the Liberal Democrats, largely overlooked in recent weeks, could emerge as the largest party in English local government.
This scenario presents several paradoxes for party leader Ed Davey and his team. While they rank fifth in many national polls with ratings barely changed from 2024, Lib Dem leaders remain confident, believing that UK politics is now so fragmented that headline polling is almost irrelevant. A senior Lib Dem stated, “A lot of people seem to be misreading the way things are going. We think we have some of the answers.”
The party’s ambitions are familiar: barring an unexpected shift, the Lib Dems will increase their total councillor count for an unprecedented eighth straight local election. A particularly strong performance, combined with heavy Conservative losses, could see the Lib Dems overtake Kemi Badenoch’s party. If Labour performs very poorly, there is an outside chance that second place could become first. One party strategist noted, “It’s not something we’re necessarily expecting this time – it’s more likely in a year or two. But for all the fuss about Reform, year after year we are quietly making gains. It’s the tortoise and the hare.”
Beyond raw metrics, two main gauges of success for the Lib Dems will be consolidation or progress in “blue wall” areas where they won dozens of parliamentary seats from the Conservatives in 2024. “In places like Surrey we want to show we can finish the job on the Tories,” said one Lib Dem MP. Another MP described it as “electoral bamboo,” adding, “I’m still surrounded by Conservatives, but we are spreading out quickly.” The other gauge, less certain, would be gains on councils that have been less promising for the Lib Dems in recent years, such as Birmingham and Preston.
In the latter category, Lib Dem strategists aim to test a campaigning model based on rigorous voter targeting and the ability to “cut through the noise” of an increasingly fragmented political system. For the local elections, this involves occasionally Reform-adjacent retail policies, such as a demand to cut fuel duty by 10p to help with costs from the Iran war, coupled with relentless attacks on Nigel Farage, particularly his closeness to Donald Trump. The party is running its largest-ever programme of digital adverts, most targeting Farage and contrasting his support for Trump with Davey’s repeated willingness to criticise the US president.
“Iran has had real cut-through,” one Lib Dem MP said. “It’s not uncommon to have someone complain about potholes and then switch directly to the war and their worries about Trump. It is also really notable the number of doors you knock on where people say they are desperate for anyone except Reform to win. Farage is really polarising.”
This phenomenon is central to a strategy aimed mainly at the next general election but being tested on 7 May. Based on extensive internal polling, the Lib Dems believe that about half of voters will do whatever is necessary to block Reform in their local area. One senior Lib Dem said, “We are seeing huge, huge levels of tactical voting, in a way we haven’t seen before.” This context makes the party relaxed about polling on who will definitely vote for them, focusing instead on those who would consider it, perhaps tactically.
With about a quarter of voters seen as strongly pro-Reform – the “burn everything down and start again” sector – another quarter are frustrated with the government and flatlining incomes but uncertain where to go. Campaigning targets this group with retail policies centred on the cost of living and presenting the Lib Dems, particularly Davey, as able to understand their worries without the baggage or discord of Reform. One senior Lib Dem explained, “We don’t need to chase the 50% who are already anti-Reform. They will vote tactically regardless of almost anything else. In 2019 we tried to win just with these people and got hammered. It’s easy to boost polling numbers and lose seats.”
However, this will be at most a partial test. Local elections differ from general elections: turnout is lower, and many voters are less worried about a Reform-run council collecting their bins than the idea of Farage in Downing Street. But there will be lessons to uncover, including whether the Lib Dems’ electoral ground game still works in a five-party battle, and if Davey, whose performance has prompted some grumblings among MPs, has the ambition and charisma to expand the party’s brand beyond its strongholds.
Thus far, the mood is hopeful. “There is more work to do, but we are getting towards being on the right track,” one MP said. “Some of the movement on economy is positive.” But with the two-party system seemingly shattered and voter loyalty a memory, all predictions come with caveats. This is new ground for everyone. “I knocked on a door and a man said he wanted to vote for Restore Britain,” one MP said, referring to the Rupert Lowe-led start-up party to the right of Reform. “When I told him they aren’t standing here he said: ‘Well, it’s probably you then.’ That was a first.”
