Treasurer Jim Chalmers faces a significant challenge in selling and explaining Labor's budget as One Nation climbs to within one point of the government's primary vote, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll. The poll reveals that just 25% of Australians back the budget, while 56% believe the Labor government has fallen short of expectations over the past year.
Key Findings from the Poll
The poll, conducted after the budget was delivered a fortnight ago, shows Labor with a 29% primary vote, One Nation on 28%, and the Coalition on 23%. Both Labor and the Coalition dropped one point from April, while One Nation rose three points. The prime minister's net approval slumped seven points in a month, with only 37% approving of Anthony Albanese's performance and 54% disapproving.
Housing and Tax Changes Fail to Convince
Labor's key budget measures on housing and tax have failed to win over Australians. Only a third or fewer voters back the negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) changes, and many doubt these will help first home buyers. Just 33% support winding back negative gearing and CGT for property, while 32% back changing CGT for shares and investments. Introducing new taxes on trusts is the least popular measure, with only 26% support.
However, two-thirds of Australians back the general principle of taxing assets and wealth more equally to salaries and wages, which is a central theme of the budget. Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media, noted that ongoing cost-of-living pressures are creating low confidence in the future.
Opposition Policies Gain Support
Opposition leader Angus Taylor's hardline immigration policies have gained majority support. Capping immigration to the number of new house builds is backed by 58%, and limiting welfare to citizens only has 57% support. The Coalition has targeted Labor's broken promise on negative gearing and CGT, with voters split on whether governments should stick to election commitments (46%) or change positions if circumstances change (41%).
Mixed Reactions to Budget Measures
The most popular budget measure is the $250 working Australians tax offset, with 47% in favor. However, the property tax changes have not convinced voters, with only 28% believing they will make the system fairer. Many remain uncertain, with 26% neither supporting nor opposing the negative gearing changes and 14% unsure.
Intergenerational Fairness Questioned
The government has framed the budget as addressing intergenerational fairness and fixing a broken housing market for young people. Yet, 30% of voters believe the changes will make the housing market more unfair, while 22% think they will make no difference. Only 28% expect the system to become fairer.
Chalmers has emphasized that the budget aims to better align tax treatment between income from work and investments, claiming the current system is out of whack. With the poll showing high levels of uncertainty, the government faces an uphill battle to sell its proposals.
