Andy Burnham used his victory speech to call on Labour to act now, saying there would be no second chance. The mayor of Manchester is set to return to Westminster after decisively beating Nigel Farage's Reform party in the Makerfield byelection, putting Keir Starmer's leadership on notice.
Burnham described the contest as the "most consequential byelection of our lives," promising it would not only change the constituency but the country. He touted his win as a "turning point," and the coming days will reveal more about his expected challenge to Starmer's premiership.
Byelection Results
Turnout reached 58.75%, up from 52.5% at the 2024 general election, the highest for a byelection in seven years. Burnham secured 24,927 votes (55%) for Labour, increasing the party's vote share by nearly 10%. Reform UK's Robert Kenyon received 15,696 votes (35%), while Restore Britain's Rebecca Shepherd trailed with 3,111 votes (6.84%).
Burnham won without relying on the split right-wing vote, securing 6,100 more votes than Reform and Restore combined. There was evidence of tactical voting, with Liberal Democrats and Greens receiving only 163 and 308 votes respectively.
Polling Expert Analysis
Polling guru John Curtice cautioned against reading a wider surge for Labour into the results, telling the BBC that much of Burnham's success lay in "his appeal to those who wanted to see the back of Keir Starmer."
What Happens Next?
Burnham now appears unstoppable. Louise Haigh, former transport minister and key figure in Burnham's campaign, suggested Keir Starmer should agree to an "orderly and managed" handover of power. However, Starmer has doubled down on his vow to stay as prime minister despite over 100 backbenchers calling for him to go.
Energy secretary and Burnham ally Ed Miliband dismissed speculation about his own position. Home office minister Mike Tapp told the BBC a handover is unrealistic because Burnham "hasn't laid out his political agenda."
Wes Streeting, another potential leadership rival, stated he is prepared to spark a contest early next week. Some argue Burnham's victory makes a coronation more likely.
Who is Andy Burnham?
Often called Britain's most popular politician, Burnham's political philosophy, Manchesterism, advocates a more interventionist economy, public takeover of essential assets, and expanded devolution. During the campaign, he proposed a decade-long project to bring water and energy into public control, overhaul property tax and social care. Critics note he has not addressed immediate challenges like foreign policy.
Burnham shifted positions on some issues, distancing himself from scrapping the "no recourse to public funds" rule and backing controversial immigration changes. Some worry his flip-flopping could pull him to the right, repeating Starmer's mistakes.
Impact on Reform UK
This was a bad night for Reform UK. The party needs to win left-behind, Leave-voting seats like Makerfield to have hope in a general election. Despite polling 10 points ahead nationally, Makerfield marks Reform's second byelection loss this year, facing competition from Restore Britain.
Reform candidate Robert Kenyon struggled after sexist and homophobic posts from a former X account were unearthed. Restore candidate Rebecca Shepherd targeted right-leaning women on Facebook. Prof Rob Ford noted Restore's message that Reform had become part of the establishment resonated with voters.
Scottish Byelections
In Scotland, the SNP held Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, while losing Aberdeen South to the Conservatives in a contest dominated by energy policy. This boosts Kemi Badenoch's morale and suggests Peter Murrell's conviction for embezzlement has dented SNP voter confidence.
