Ukraine and Russia to Hold Second Round of Talks in Geneva
Senior Ukrainian and Russian officials are scheduled to meet this week in Switzerland for a second round of negotiations brokered by the Trump administration. This meeting comes just days before the fourth anniversary of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, adding a poignant backdrop to the diplomatic efforts.
Details of the Geneva Negotiations
The two-day meeting, set to begin on Tuesday, is expected to follow a similar format to the discussions held earlier this month in Abu Dhabi. Representatives from Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow will be in attendance, with the talks marking the first time such negotiations are held on European soil after previous rounds in Abu Dhabi and Istanbul.
Despite renewed efforts by the United States to revive diplomacy, hopes for any sudden breakthrough remain extremely low. Russia continues to press maximalist demands on Ukraine, including territorial concessions and other political conditions that Kyiv has repeatedly rejected.
Key Participants and Agenda
Russia's negotiating team will be led by Vladimir Medinsky, an arch-conservative adviser to President Vladimir Putin who has previously questioned Ukrainian sovereignty. He will be joined by Igor Kostyukov, the chief of Russian military intelligence, and deputy foreign minister Mikhail Galuzin, among nearly two dozen officials.
Ukraine is expected to send the same delegation as in earlier rounds, led by Rustem Umerov, secretary of Ukraine's national security and defence council. The choice of Geneva appears to have been pushed by Washington, with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner scheduled to hold separate meetings with Iranian officials in the city later this week.
Diverging Positions and Political Pressure
Ahead of the Geneva meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made clear that Ukraine remains unwilling to give up territory in the Donbas region, which represents a key Kremlin demand. He cited previous Russian land grabs in Chechnya, Georgia and Crimea as cautionary examples, stating that "allowing the aggressor to take something is a big mistake."
Zelenskyy emphasized that "Putin cannot be stopped with kisses or flowers" and advised against such approaches with the Russian leader. He noted that Russia is currently losing 30,000-35,000 people monthly in its attempt to seize more territory over four years of full-scale war, describing these losses as staggeringly costly and mostly unsuccessful.
US Political Dynamics and Ukrainian Concerns
Former President Donald Trump, who throughout his second presidency has veered between criticizing Moscow and Kyiv, reverted this weekend to placing blame on Zelenskyy, suggesting Ukraine was holding up efforts to end the war. "Zelenskyy needs to act. Russia wants to make a deal. He needs to act, otherwise he will miss a great opportunity," he told reporters.
However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, indicated that Washington remains uncertain whether Russia is genuinely serious about ending the war in Ukraine. This reflects the complex and often contradictory messaging emerging from the Trump administration regarding the conflict.
Ukrainian Domestic Considerations
Speaking at the Munich security conference on Saturday, Zelenskyy said his country would not give up the heavily defended north of Donetsk oblast, including the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, or abandon the 200,000 civilians who live there. He acknowledged there were differences with the US over security guarantees, with the Trump administration offering 15 years while Ukraine wants an American commitment lasting 30-50 years.
Kyrylo Budanov, head of the presidential office, posted a photo of his departure by train for the talks with a Ukrainian delegation, writing: "On the way to Geneva. The next round of negotiations is ahead. Along the way, we will discuss the lessons of our history with our colleagues and seek the right conclusions. Ukraine's interests must be protected."
Election Pressure and Security Concerns
Olexiy Haran, a professor of comparative politics at the Kyiv-Mohyla academy, noted that Ukrainians are overwhelmingly opposed to growing US-Russian demands that Ukraine hold presidential elections. "The country is not ready for them because there are no security conditions. It would be crazy to conduct them under martial law," he stated.
Haran recognized that both Trump and Putin are putting "huge pressure" on Zelenskyy to hold a poll over the next few months. He suggested the Kremlin is trying to "destabilize" the situation inside Ukraine and would not agree to a ceasefire. Numerous legal and practical obstacles exist to holding a vote, including the question of how international observers could participate under current conditions.
"Doubts of the government's legitimacy is a trick of the Kremlin, echoed unfortunately by President Trump," Haran said. "Political renewal is needed, but elections can only take place once the war ends and security conditions allow."
Despite the diplomatic activity, there are no expectations in Kyiv that the latest round of trilateral talks will lead to a political breakthrough. Zelenskyy has indicated that Kyiv hopes the war will end this year, but the path to that outcome remains unclear as both sides maintain fundamentally opposed positions on key issues.
