The roar of F-16 fighter jets taking off from a Polish airbase carries a stark warning far beyond Europe's borders. Military and diplomatic leaders across the continent now assert that the brutal conflict in Ukraine has significantly increased the likelihood of war erupting in the Indo-Pacific region, urging nations like Australia to urgently bolster their defences.
Lessons from the European Frontline
At the 32 Tactical Air Base in Łask, Poland, the recent deployment of an Australian E-7A Wedgetail surveillance aircraft underscored deepening global security ties. The aircraft, packed with sophisticated systems, conducted approximately 45 missions, including monitoring supply routes into Ukraine. Lieutenant Colonel Grzegorz Langowski, who commanded the base, emphasised the critical importance of this cooperation for practising shared tactics and procedures.
"The world is interconnected and strategy is important," Langowski stated. "It includes Poland and the Ukrainian war, but it affects China as well and Australia over there." He welcomed further Australian deployments, even as uncertain peace talks loom.
The conflict has been a brutal testing ground for new forms of warfare, particularly the relentless use of drones. Andrius Kubilius, a former Lithuanian Prime Minister now serving as an EU defence chief, warned that member states were slow to recognise this threat. He is helping to guide a new EU-Australia security partnership and urged a rapid scaling-up of capabilities.
"You don't always need to send tanks or artillery through the border to occupy territory," Kubilius explained. "But you can really terrorise neighbouring countries or countries further away with drones, disturbing strategic infrastructure." He described drone technology as part of a rapidly evolving "ecosystem," where systems can become obsolete within months as adversaries develop countermeasures.
A Shared Playbook: From Moscow to the South China Sea
Senior European commanders see direct parallels between Russian actions and potential threats in the Asia-Pacific. Lieutenant General Maciej Klisz, the operational commander of the Polish Armed Forces, who mobilised troops against Russian drone incursions last September, met with Australia's Vice Admiral Justin Jones. "What we both agreed is they have the same playbook," Klisz said. "While close for us is Moscow, we see it in a much broader context and you cannot avoid naming China."
He pointed to the weaponisation of maritime routes and the targeting of strategic assets as tactics that could be replicated elsewhere. This concern is echoed in Australia, where defence officials recently tracked a Chinese naval flotilla approaching its waters. Poland is now considering joining Australia's major Talisman Sabre military exercises to bolster interoperability.
Robert Kupiecki, Poland's undersecretary of state for security, highlighted the strategic cooperation between China and Russia. "If something bad is to happen in your part of the world, involving our American allies, it will have a direct effect on us," he said, noting the high number of scenarios among analysts for parallel conflicts in Europe and the Pacific.
Australia's Response and the Global Stakes
In response to these evolving threats, Australia is accelerating its military modernisation. The government plans to spend at least $10 billion on drone systems over the next decade, including a recent $1 billion agreement for six 'Ghost Bat' drones with a range exceeding 3,700km.
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, who has visited Kyiv, framed the challenge in terms of upholding a rules-based order. "We want a region where sovereignty is respected, where no one country dominates and no country is dominated," she told Guardian Australia. This strategic balance, she argued, is essential for Australia's future.
The European Union itself is developing a "drone wall" defence system to counter incursions, recognising that hybrid threats now extend far beyond traditional battlefields, targeting civilian infrastructure in nations like Germany and Norway.
Marc Abensour, France's senior diplomat for Indo-Pacific engagement, warned of increased "strategic disinhibition" following the invasion of Ukraine. "That has a global impact and it is not limited to the European theatre," he said, emphasising the need to manage tensions around Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula and to avoid a world divided into spheres of influence.
The consensus from European capitals to the front lines in Poland is clear: the war in Ukraine is not an isolated event. It is a grim preview of future conflict dynamics, demanding that Pacific nations, led by Australia, learn its lessons and prepare accordingly.
