Security analysts are warning that Donald Trump's apparent seriousness about acquiring Greenland from Denmark, a fellow NATO member, risks shattering the alliance and reveals a profound vulnerability in European defence.
The Arctic Gambit: Why Trump Believes He Can Act With Impunity
According to defence experts, the US President is likely calculating that he could get away with an Arctic land grab because the transatlantic alliance needs American support far more than he needs its approval. The stark military reality is that no European nation would be capable of stopping such a move by force. This assessment follows Trump's recent military strikes in Venezuela and the capture of its president, actions which have set a concerning precedent.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has stated unequivocally that an attack on Greenland would mean the end of NATO and the post-Second World War security order. However, with the US as the alliance's dominant military power, such warnings may not deter Washington's commander-in-chief.
The Precarious Position of the UK and European Allies
The United Kingdom, despite positioning itself as Europe's leading military power within NATO, finds itself in a particularly precarious situation. Decades of strategic dependence on American "enablers"—critical capabilities like satellite intelligence, electronic warfare systems, and complex logistics—have left its armed forces deeply integrated with US systems.
This reliance extends to the UK's nuclear deterrent, the cornerstone of its defence policy. While the government maintains the capability is sovereign, it is fundamentally intertwined with American technology, such as the Trident missile system carried by British submarines. On the conventional battlefield, the British military assumes it will always fight alongside the far larger and better-equipped US forces, a assumption that has allowed for cuts to expensive indigenous capabilities.
The pattern is replicated across NATO. Member states operate American-made kit like F-35 jets, P-8 patrol aircraft, and Chinook helicopters, and their war plans, drafted by the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (a role always held by an American officer), are built around US contributions.
A Final Wake-Up Call for European Security
The looming threat to Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory, should serve as the ultimate alarm bell for the UK, Europe, and Canada. The alliance's ability to defend itself without the United States—let alone counter a potential threat from Washington—is now dangerously compromised.
While NATO is attempting to get European allies and Canada to do more in anticipation of a reduced US commitment, the process is slow. The fundamental imbalance of power remains, and as one analyst noted, Trump's calculations contain an uncomfortable truth. The biggest losers from a breakdown of the NATO security apparatus would be the European members themselves.
The conclusion from security circles is clear: the UK and its allies must never again allow themselves to slide into such a position of profound and strategic weakness. The era of overreliance on American military power must end if the sovereignty and security of Europe is to be guaranteed in an increasingly unpredictable world.
