Trump's Iran Airstrike Decision Hinges on Envoys' Nuclear Deal Assessment
President Donald Trump's potential decision to order airstrikes against Iran will be significantly influenced by the judgments of his special envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, regarding whether Tehran is delaying a nuclear agreement. According to sources familiar with the matter, Trump has not finalized any strike plans as the administration awaits Iran's latest proposal this week, ahead of critical negotiations scheduled for Thursday in Geneva.
Key Advisers and Military Considerations
Kushner and Witkoff will lead the upcoming talks, and their evaluation of the likelihood of a deal will directly shape Trump's decision-making process. If negotiations fail, Trump has informed advisers that he is considering limited strikes to pressure Iran, with the possibility of a larger attack to force regime change if necessary. The president has received multiple briefings on military options, including a recent session in the White House Situation Room, and has sought input from a wide range of officials.
Other key advisers involved in the discussions include Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, General Dan Caine, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Vance has presented both sides of the argument for airstrikes but has expressed concerns about the risks, particularly compared to previous operations like the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.
Military Buildup and Strategic Concerns
General Caine has raised concerns about the low stockpile of anti-missile systems, referencing the extensive use of Patriot missiles during last year's counterattacks after Trump bombed Iran's nuclear sites. Iran has vowed to retaliate aggressively to any U.S. attack, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning of the ability to sink a U.S. warship. Caine has been more vocal about these concerns within the Pentagon than in briefings with Trump, possibly to avoid appearing biased, according to insiders.
In response, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly stated that Caine is a respected professional who provides unbiased information to the Commander in Chief. However, uncertainty persists within the administration about whether airstrikes would effectively pressure Iran into a deal or lead to regime change. Officials are exploring alternatives, such as allowing Iran limited nuclear enrichment for civilian purposes like medical research.
Diplomatic Moves and Regional Dynamics
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to travel to Israel to update President Benjamin Netanyahu on the negotiation outcomes in meetings set for February 28. Meanwhile, positions appear to be hardening ahead of the final negotiating session. Witkoff emphasized on Fox News that Trump's directive is for Iran to retain zero nuclear enrichment capability, while Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on CBS's Face the Nation that Tehran is unwilling to relinquish enrichment.
In preparation for potential military action, the U.S. has assembled its largest concentration of air power in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The USS Gerald Ford, the navy's most advanced aircraft carrier, is expected to arrive in the region soon, joining dozens of F-35 and F-22 fighter jets, bombers, and refueling aircraft. This buildup would enable Trump to sustain an extended air campaign rather than a limited strike like last summer's operation against enrichment sites.
