The United Nations faces a critical leadership selection as 15 diplomats prepare to emerge from a sound-proofed room in the UN headquarters in New York to announce the next secretary-general, a decision complicated by the need for approval from US President Donald Trump, who has expressed skepticism toward the organization.
Two permanent members of the Security Council, the US and Russia, are engaged in wars of choice with no end in sight. A UN commission of inquiry has accused Israel of genocide in Gaza, yet the UN has been reduced to a bystander role, sidelined by Trump's Board of Peace. The climate crisis is generating new humanitarian disasters, while unregulated AI advancements pose emerging security threats.
Challenges Facing the Next Secretary-General
The next leader will confront a combination of challenges unlike any predecessors faced. Multilateralism, a rules-based order, and international law are under threat. Secretary-general elections have rarely been this consequential, with conversations dominating the sidelines of the UN General Assembly this week and next as world leaders gather for the annual summit.
The UN desperately needs a new leader who is both charismatic and competent. However, the five permanent members of the Security Council—the US, UK, France, Russia, and China—hold veto power. Any candidate must secure approval from Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and most importantly, Trump. As Steve Bloomfield, former international editor of the Observer, notes, "It is not easy to argue you are best placed to save the UN when the man you need to persuade would rather it fails."
Stalled Selection Process
Three informal straw polls have taken place without a frontrunner emerging. Opposition to the two leading candidates rose in last Friday's vote. For the first time in the organization's 80-year history, serious discussions are occurring about what happens if no secretary-general is chosen at all.
Ten years ago, António Guterres of Portugal was elected, widely welcomed as a boost for the UN after Ban Ki-moon's low-energy leadership. Guterres, as former UN refugee chief, had been an outspoken activist pledging to speak for the world's most vulnerable people. A month later, Trump took office as US president.
US Actions Undermining the UN
Earlier this year, Trump announced the US's withdrawal from 31 UN organizations, including bodies addressing climate change and women's health. In July, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the administration's desire to "dismantle" the International Criminal Court "brick by brick." The abrupt closure of USAID, the US aid and development program, led to deaths worldwide.
The establishment of Trump's Board of Peace sparked fears it could supplant the UN itself. Meanwhile, the UN faces a financial crisis, with Guterres warning during the summer of "imminent financial collapse" due to unpaid dues, much owed by the US.
UN's Enduring Relevance
Despite these challenges, the UN remains standing and matters. Through its Framework Convention on Climate Change, it focuses international attention on the greatest crisis facing the world. Despite funding cuts, there are still 11 peacekeeping missions staffed by over 50,000 personnel in dangerous regions. The UN's office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs remains the best hope for negotiating aid access in war zones, including Sudan.
This year, the General Assembly passed two landmark resolutions: recognizing the transatlantic slave trade as a crime and adopting a new world map correctly representing Africa's size.
Candidates' campaigns have been overwhelmingly cautious, with unknown positions on the war in Ukraine or Israel's actions in Gaza. UN experts believe current frontrunners—Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana and Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica—might become good secretary-generals, but no one is blown away by the choice.
UK and France Await New Candidates
The UK, with Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband attending the General Assembly, has yet to express a preference. The UK team at the UN is reportedly unimpressed with all candidates, having not voted in favor of anyone in the first three straw polls. The UK and France hope another candidate will emerge.
The New York Post reported in July that Trump wanted FIFA president Gianni Infantino for the job, though that is unlikely. European diplomats fear a Trump-backed dark horse, possibly without a diplomatic background, may emerge. Trump has said nothing publicly, though his speech at the General Assembly on Tuesday or a social media post could upend the race.
The chances of the Permanent Five failing to agree remain slim, but plans are being drawn up in case. Guterres may be asked to stay on, or senior UN officials might serve in administrative roles. Either way, it would leave the UN rudderless at a critical time.
No one gets the job without Trump's say-so, but once in office, the US president will have less sway. The new secretary-general could serve for 10 years, eight without Trump in the White House. Even without Trump, the job remains nearly impossible. The UN's financial crisis persists, severe cuts are coming, and there will be no easy return to the 1990s and early 2000s when the UN was central to world events. A new leader must reinvent multilateralism in a world where it's going out of favor.
Depending on the choice made, this decision could be seen as the moment the crumbling international rules-based order began to be rebuilt—or when it slid irretrievably into irrelevance.
