Parts of England are expected to hit 35°C on Monday in an unprecedented May heatwave, with forecasters predicting the hottest May day on record by a large margin. The Met Office confirmed that Monday will be the hottest May day in UK temperature records, with highs of 35°C expected. The current May record stands at 32.8°C, and records are usually broken by only tenths of a degree, making this heatwave unprecedented for the time of year.
Tropical Nights Ahead
Much of England faced disturbed sleep on Sunday night as a new overnight record for May was set at 19.4°C in Kenley, Greater London. While London narrowly avoided a 'tropical night' (where temperatures do not drop below 20°C), two tropical nights are forecast for Monday and Tuesday nights before temperatures ease on Wednesday. Sunday was already the UK's hottest May day in at least 79 years, with Kew Gardens in west London recording 32.3°C (90.1°F).
Heatwave Conditions
Many areas of England are officially in a heatwave, with Santon Downham in Suffolk being the first to meet the criteria on Sunday. Other areas in heatwave conditions include Heathrow, Kew Gardens, and Northolt in London; Benson in Oxfordshire; Brooms Barn in Suffolk; and High Beach and Writtle in Essex.
The Met Office spokesperson noted that the last time a monthly maximum record was broken was in January 2024, by 1.6°C. The 40.3°C recorded in July 2022 exceeded the previous record by 1.6°C. If the forecasted 35°C is reached, it will represent a jump of 2.2°C, underscoring the severity of this heatwave.
Super El Niño Summer
More heatwaves are likely this summer as a 'super El Niño' is expected to hit. This phenomenon supercharges weather events, making them more extreme, such as hotter heatwaves. The effects are projected to build up and peak in 2027, potentially breaking global heat records, but it is expected to begin emerging this summer.
El Niño is characterized by warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is one of three states observed by scientists: La Niña, when sea surface temperatures are below average; and neutral conditions, when temperatures are about average.
Long-Term Trends
While temperatures of 30°C were once unusual in the UK even in summer, they are becoming more common. Hot temperatures are likely to persist in the UK and Europe. According to the latest European State of the Climate report, Europe is the fastest-warming continent in the world. The UK generally experiences its hottest temperatures at the end of July or the beginning of August, so forecasters expect conditions to become even hotter by the end of summer.
