A survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) has found that two-thirds of EU citizens across 15 countries would support Britain rejoining the European Union, while a large majority of UK voters now want closer ties, including accepting free movement in exchange for trade benefits.
EU support for UK membership
The polling, conducted ten years after the Brexit referendum, showed 66% of respondents across 15 EU nations either “strongly supported” or “tended to support” UK membership. This average comfortably exceeded those favouring a closer relationship (59%) or the status quo (46%). Support ranged from 56% in Bulgaria and 59% in France and Italy to 75% in the Netherlands and Denmark.
Even voters for far-right and EU-critical parties expressed support for closer EU-UK relations, including majorities of backers of Poland’s Confederation (71%), Germany’s AfD (58%), and France’s National Rally (58%). Several European leaders have echoed this sentiment: French President Emmanuel Macron said the door is “always open,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said Spain would “absolutely” support British membership, and Finnish President Alexander Stubb explicitly named the UK as a candidate, stating, “We need a UK voice in Europe. We really miss you guys.” In May, the European Green party formally invited the UK to rejoin.
UK voters’ negative verdict on Brexit
In the UK, the polling, carried out in May, found voters across party lines—including supporters of Reform UK—believed Brexit had negatively impacted the country on key issues. British respondents said leaving had harmed their main priorities: the cost of living (66%), the economy (65%), youth opportunity (57%), illegal immigration (56%), and trade (56%). Even most leave voters (58%) said Brexit had made illegal immigration worse.
When asked to identify primary benefits of Brexit, the most common response was “don’t know,” followed closely by “none of the above,” suggesting most British voters now feel Brexit caused damage without apparent upside.
Desire for closer ties and acceptance of free movement
This negative verdict translates into a strong desire for a closer relationship with the bloc: 75% of UK respondents favoured closer ties. Regarding trade and economic relations, 66% said they should be very or slightly closer. Strikingly, a large majority (63%) of respondents—including 57% of those who voted leave in 2016—said they would accept freedom of movement in exchange for closer trading ties, with only 18% rejecting it. Even among voters whose top concern was immigration, 44% backed freedom of movement as part of a closer economic relationship, indicating that one of the core drivers of the Brexit vote is no longer central to the UK debate.
Geopolitical alignment and security preferences
The report identified three main voter camps in the UK: “optimists” (28%) who view European alignment as a geopolitical necessity; “realists” (35%) who support closer ties but value US ties; and “loners” (27%) who prioritise national sovereignty. Overall, British voters favoured Europe over the US as a preferred security partner, with just 18% viewing the US as an ally and 58% favouring closer defensive relations with Europe, compared with 19% for the US. A majority of British voters do not want to buy more weapons from the US, while over 60% would prefer a “buy European” policy. Almost two-thirds (63%) also want the UK to participate in developing an alternative European nuclear deterrent.
ECFR director’s analysis
Mark Leonard, the ECFR director and report author, said the polling showed the EU is open to the UK’s return and that the British public has fundamentally moved on from 2016, making Europe a political opportunity for the UK government. “Brexit was the insurgent vehicle for a nation rejecting the status quo. A decade on, Brits realise their hopes for a better life outside the EU are unfulfilled and Brexit is undermining the UK’s ability to manage the issues they care about most,” he said. Leonard added that the data revealed a “very broad permissive consensus for going far beyond the government’s current reset.”
