Chancellor Friedrich Merz's criticism of Donald Trump last month was not merely a moment of personal candour or a sign of tension between Berlin and the White House. It signalled a broader shift among European leaders, who are increasingly willing to publicly confront the Trump administration on issues ranging from Iran to Ukraine and European sovereignty.
Why Europe Is Standing Up
The Trump administration's increasingly erratic policies and the belief that they demand a more forceful response partly explain this change. Merz directed his remarks at the war on Iran, stating that Trump lacks a viable exit strategy and that Tehran's clever diplomacy had 'humiliated' the US. However, his comments followed a series of tough interventions from European leaders including Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer, and even Giorgia Meloni.
The US attempt to acquire Greenland earlier this year crossed clear European red lines regarding the territorial integrity of a Nato ally and the right to self-determination of the Greenlandic people. Similarly, attempts by Trump and Vice-President JD Vance to influence Hungary's election in favour of Viktor Orbán provoked strong reactions.
Reduced US Leverage
Yet none of these crises alone explain Europe's harder stance. More important is the growing belief inside European capitals that Washington holds less leverage over the continent than it did a year ago. The Iran war has demonstrated that the US needs Europe-based military infrastructure to project power in the Middle East, suggesting that military dependency is not entirely one-sided. Europe's military spending has also risen sharply since Trump's return to office, with a growing share directed towards European arms manufacturers.
The US remains Europe's dominant arms supplier, but the Sipri thinktank estimates that the US share of arms transfers to Europe fell to 58% from 2021-25, down from 64% over the 2020-24 period.
Ukraine and Trade
The same logic now shapes European thinking on Ukraine. Since March 2025, the US has halted all financing to Kyiv, meaning the bulk of Ukraine's funding now comes from the EU. Ukraine continues to purchase weapons through Nato's US-inspired prioritised Ukraine requirements list but sources a much larger share of its military needs from outside the US. About 60% of military hardware comes from Ukrainian domestic production and 20% from European suppliers.
The US still provides critical capabilities, particularly in intelligence and air defence. But European officials increasingly believe that even a significant reduction in US support in these areas would not produce an immediate Ukrainian collapse. A less US-dependent Ukraine means a less US-dependent Europe.
European governments have also come to see that many of Trump's threats never fully materialise. Resistance to the president from Congress, the courts, and even parts of his own Maga coalition is growing. EU leaders are less worried about the potency of the Maga movement and its influence on European elections after Trump and Vance's interventions failed spectacularly in Hungary. Given the widespread unpopularity of Trump among the European public, standing up to the US is giving European leaders a much-needed opinion poll boost.
Future Disputes
This shift in mood is likely to shape Europe's response to future disputes with the US, particularly on trade. If Washington proceeds with higher tariffs on European exports such as cars, the EU will respond more forcefully than it did last year, when it swallowed a 15% tariff hike as part of the US-EU Turnberry trade deal. EU member states have already approved retaliatory measures covering €93bn of US exports, even if the European Commission would initially leave some room for negotiation. The EU will also continue to take steps to promote 'de-risking' from the US in defence, digital services, and other critical areas.
The Greenland risk could yet resurface. Danish, Greenlandic, and US officials tasked with addressing US security concerns in the Arctic are not making much progress. If Trump's territorial threats are renewed, the EU would most likely respond with its powerful anti-coercion instrument targeting US hi-tech service providers.
In sum, Europe's relationship with the US is becoming less deferential. European governments believe they have greater capacity to resist US pressure. Trump's aura of invincibility has been dispelled in the US but also in Europe. His allies no longer feel they have to flatter and pander their way to the end of his second term.
Mujtaba Rahman is the managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm.
