Deal to avoid US tariffs may cost thousands of lives
Ministers hailed the deal as a way of avoiding US tariffs, but analysis published in the British Medical Journal reveals that the UK-US trade deal agreed last December could result in 229,000 excess deaths in England by 2036. The NHS will have to divert £45bn from essential services to pay for new medicines under the terms of the deal, leading to avoidable deaths among patients with heart, respiratory, gastrointestinal disease or cancer.
Impact on NHS funding
The analysis, from the University of York, the University of Liverpool and Christchurch hospital in New Zealand, found that £44.7bn in NHS cash will be diverted from health services by 2036 to pay more for new medicines, unless extra funding is provided. The annual cost to the NHS will surge to £8.8bn by 2036. If the indirect effect on adult social care is included, excess deaths would increase to 291,000.
Ministers defended the deal as a “landmark” to safeguard medicines access and drive investment. The UK agreed to pay 25% more for new medicines over the next decade, doubling the percentage of GDP allocated to innovative therapies from 0.3% to 0.6%.
Political and expert reaction
Sir Ciarán Devane, chief executive of the NHS Alliance, said the analysis raised “serious questions” over whether the deal represented value for patients or the NHS. He urged the government to publish the full impact assessment. Helen Morgan, Liberal Democrat health spokesperson, called the analysis “alarming” and said it was “crazy” that billions were spent placating Donald Trump.
Tim Bierley, campaigner at Global Justice Now, said: “Billions that could be spent on recruiting more NHS staff, cutting GP waiting times, or improving our hospital care are set to be siphoned off by corporate giants in the pharma industry. As the research shows, if money is diverted from other critical parts of our NHS to pay for this deal, this would lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths.”
Diarmaid McDonald, executive director of Just Treatment, said: “These numbers should shock people to their core. Tens of billions of pounds taken out of the NHS budget and put into the back pockets of the pharmaceutical industry, placing hundreds of thousands of lives at risk.”
Government response
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “Through our partnership with the US, we have reformed medicine pricing, allowing NHS patients to access life-changing new medicines they previously would have been denied. The £45bn figure is not recognised by the department. The deal will be funded by allocations made at the spending review, where record funding for the NHS was secured.”
