A groundbreaking study by Queen Mary University of London has found that women who received the HPV vaccine in early adolescence have virtually zero risk of dying from cervical cancer before the age of 30. However, experts warn that falling vaccination rates could lead to a rise in avoidable deaths.
Study Details
Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide, with high-risk human papillomaviruses (HPV) causing 99% of cases. In England, about 3,300 women are diagnosed annually. While the HPV vaccine prevents about 90% of cervical cancers, its impact on survival had been unknown until now.
Researchers from Queen Mary University of London used official cancer mortality and vaccination data for women aged 20 to 34 to calculate the vaccine's effect on survival. The study, funded by Cancer Research UK and published in The Lancet, found substantial falls in cervical cancer mortality among those offered vaccination since its introduction in 2008.
Key Findings
For girls vaccinated at age 12 or 13, the likelihood of dying from cervical cancer before 30 is almost zero. Among vaccinated women aged 30-34, the relative risk of death is 63% lower. For the first time, no women aged 20-24 died from cervical cancer in England between 2020 and 2024. In total, the HPV vaccine has saved hundreds of lives.
Lead author Professor Peter Sasieni stated: "We estimate that since its introduction, HPV vaccination has prevented nearly 200 young women from dying from cervical cancer in England."
Vaccination Rates and Concerns
The HPV vaccine is offered to girls and boys in year 8, with catch-up vaccinations in some areas. Until the pandemic, vaccination rates were close to the WHO target of 90%, but have since fallen significantly. Currently, national uptake is 75%, and only 60% in London.
Professor Sasieni warned: "The falling HPV vaccine uptake means that without swift and concerted efforts, we could see a reversal of these trends. There could be another 15-25 avoidable deaths each year in young women and eventually about 200 deaths from cervical cancer each year that could be prevented if we can increase vaccine uptake to pre-Covid levels."
Expert Reactions
Michelle Mitchell, chief executive of Cancer Research UK, said: "It's essential that the UK government and health systems urgently address this with targeted action to reach communities where uptake is the lowest."
Helen Hyndman, lead nurse at The Eve Appeal, noted that cervical cancer will not be eliminated unless vaccination and screening rates improve. "We are lagging behind on our plans to eliminate cervical cancer by 2040; at our current rate, it will be 2050 before this is achieved."
Dr. Alison Wright, president of the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists, called the data "exciting and powerful," showing that the vaccine could lead to fewer women diagnosed with cervical cancer and fewer lives lost.
Caroline Temmink, NHS Director of Vaccination, said: "This hugely encouraging news shows the life-saving impact of the HPV vaccine. Alongside cervical screening, HPV vaccination is central to the NHS ambition to eliminate cervical cancer by 2040."
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson added: "We are boosting vaccine uptake, including rolling out catch-up HPV vaccination campaigns via community pharmacies and making cervical screening more accessible."
